Early this April, a district leader of the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagham (DMK) shared a unique prediction with The Polity: if the voting crosses 85 per cent in Tamil Nadu on April 23rd, it will mean the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), floated by the actor-turned-politician, Joseph Vijay Chandrasekhar, popularly known as Vijay, is significantly eating into the DMK’s vote base – ranging from 10,000 to 50,000 voters.

And if the voting crosses 90 per cent in the state, it will spell trouble for the DMK, he predicted.

Cut to May 4th, this prediction came to reality; though, without even Tamil Nadu’s voting crossing the 90 per cent mark (85.1 was the state’s final declared voting percentage), Vijay’s TVK surged to 108, with the DMK trailing at 59 of its own and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagham (AIADMK) at 47 of its own.

With the Indian National Congress (INC) deciding on May 6th to support the TVK to form a government, the DMK-led alliance has ruptured and is likely to go in that direction further if more of its allies, as well as those of the AIADMK-led alliance, decide to support the TVK government.  

On the evening of April 29th, the final phase of voting, when exit polls were doling out numbers for the five states that went to polls – West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and Puducherry – the Axis My India poll stunned all by predicting that Vijay’s TVK will win 98-120 seats. All other exit polls had predicted Vijay as a significant spoiler but not formidable enough to unseat the DMK from power.  

Going by the general political trends visible in Tamil Nadu throughout the election season, aside from the large crowds that gathered for Vijay’s campaign rallies, there was a reasonable expectation that the ruling DMK, led by Chief Minister M K Stalin, could retain power for a second consecutive term.

Other than a speculative scenario indicated by one exit poll predicting a 1 per cent margin edge for the AIADMK, most pollsters are unanimous that a consecutive defeat, along with failed campaigns in two Lok Sabha polls, could mark the sunset for this Dravidian party.

Contrary to these predictions, the AIADMK put on a decent show, taking second position and leading over the DMK throughout the day at around 65 seats, until the ruling DMK salvaged its position at the end of the day to the second position.

The exit polls and other pre-poll predictions might have fallen off the mark in accurately reading Vijay’s pivotal rise in Tamil politics to the extent of garnering a colossal number of seats and a vote share ample enough to take a shot at forming the government in his debut race.

Many of the pre-poll assessments indicated a 15-20 per cent vote share to go into the TVK kitty, with indiscernible implications for the Dravidian parties in the 234 seats across the state.

What thus seemed a fait accompli was Vijay’s indisputable rise as the third pole in Tamil Nadu’s politics, and, in the final months of the run-up to the election, his emergence as the lead contender to the DMK.

What, though, baffles observers is how Vijay, in his debut race, managed to uproot the frontline Dravidian parties, with such a massive vote swing. Also raised are concerns on whether Vijay, with no experience in public administration and governance, will be able to shoulder the burden of a large state with a claimed economic growth rate of 11 per cent, while balancing his own model of populism and welfarism.

On the other hand, Kerala’s political scene also underwent a dramatic makeover. The state was not the toughest for the pollsters as ‘anti-incumbency’ sentiments have been building up in the state for the last few years, and amply manifested through the Left’s rout in both the 2024 Lok Sabha poll as well as the local bodies election in December last year.

The return of the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) to power after a decade in opposition means that the last bastion of the communists in India has fallen. The resounding defeat of the Left Democratic Front (LDF), led by the Communist Party of India (Marxist) or the CPM, being relegated to 35 seats, entails that the communists will not be in power in any state in India.

This will raise larger questions on the future of the mainstream communist movement in India – whether the defining loss in Kerala will entail a deathblow for the communist parties at the national level, or whether the parties will use it as an opportunity for a national revival as a mass movement through farmers, labour, youth and women organisations.

The question whether this will be the end of the road for Indian communism, or whether a younger leadership could enable its return to the national mainstream, is being debated again.

There have been warnings sounded out many times in recent times, especially to warn the state leadership led by Pinarayi Vijayan, that Kerala could go the Bengal way, though many feel this is not possible as the communist parties, especially the CPM, have a strong organisational base in Kerala, and could rebound in the coming elections.

On the other hand, the spectacular return of the Congress after a decade, along with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) making a dramatic reentry into the Kerala assembly, signals the realignment of Kerala politics.

The Congress-led UDF’s comeback revives questions about the developmental paradigms, considering that the LDF also had a neo-liberal economic, investment and industrialisation approach, as also the nature of ruling and opposition politics in the state.

But the BJP’s remarkable show – from one seat in 2016 to zero in 2021, and three in 2026 – is an indication of the rapid change in Kerala’s political scene, especially coming on the heels of the party’s historic win in Thiruvananthapuram Corporation.

It could be fairly assumed that the BJP is in for the long haul and will seek to increase its political power and legislative presence in the years to come, with major party funding flowing into the state.

The question will be moot whether the BJP’s expansion will be at the expense of the communist parties in the state, which are likely to witness attrition and organisational atrophy, already evident with the kind of cadre flow towards the BJP. What has so far been a trickle could now be expected to turn into some form of exodus.

Going by the rebellion already sounded out in the party’s fortresses like Kannur and Alappuzha, where even senior leaders have rebelled and have joined the opposition forces – like T.K. Govindan, V Kunhikrishnan, and G. Sudhakaran, all of whom challenged the CPM leadership, joined hands with the UDF and tasted resounding victories.

The three CPM rebels: G Sudhakaran (left), Govindan (centre), and Kunhikrishnan (right)

With organisational heft, the CPM has historically confronted and tamed its rebels, though losing Kerala could have a decapitating impact on its ability to hold on to its cadre. While the crossover of most rebel communist leaders – other than in a few instances like S. Rajendran from Idukki, who joined the BJP – in the run-up to the elections was to the ‘secular’ UDF camp, the erosion at the cadre level has been towards the BJP.

This trend is likely to heighten in the coming months, as the BJP’s strong cash kitty is likely to attract new followers. In the words of senior Congress leader K. Muraleedharan, who wrested back his Vattiyoorkavu seat after a close fight, “Having captured Bengal, Modi will now turn all his energies on Kerala.”

The Congress, on the other hand, is sitting pretty and has its task cut out in returning to power after a decade. Before gaining the confidence of the people and taking the state out of its current financial mess, the party is beset by a serious leadership question, as well as a problem of plenty.

From deciding who will be Chief Minister to finding portfolios and positions for its 63 newly elected legislators and three dozen from allies remains a pivotal challenge, before tackling more serious governance questions.  

What could be expected from the political change in the two southern states?

Vijay garlands a statue of M .G. Ramachandran during his campaign in Trichy

Another Puratchi Thalaviar in the making?

In Tamil Nadu’s crowded election arena, where a three-cornered race was unfolding, few expected such a surreal result – of a matinee idol with no political or governance experience sweeping a state election where anti-incumbency was merely a perception rather than a sweeping sentiment.

Accordingly, what befuddles political observers is how a debutant party, run by a movie star, swept the polls in this fashion, predicted only by one exit poll, and uprooted the more than half-a-century domination of Dravidian parties in Tamil Nadu.

To wit, very few in the state will wish to describe Vijay’s TVK as a non-Dravidian entity. After all, he carries Dravidian icons like E V Ramasami Periyar, along with B R Ambedkar and Kamaraj of Congress, in his party’s ideological projection.

The TVK ideology also echoes Dravidian ideals of rationalism, secularism, social justice, abolition of untouchability, state autonomy, two-language policy, and so on. Furthermore, by claiming Kamaraj’s and Ambedkar’s legacy, TVK presents itself as a centrist force that will seek social justice through the frameworks laid by Indian socialism.

Figures like Rani Velu Nachiyar and Anjalai Ammal being listed in the ideological pantheon might indicate the guidance of policies of women's empowerment and welfare, using the traditional cultural paradigms based on Tamil heritage history.

Vijay, with the leaders of the TVK

Interestingly, Vijay stays away from backing any economic dogmas in the ideological projection, though he has been articulating areas like Artificial Intelligence and other segments that appeal to Gen Z voters.

The ideology aside, there are concerns raised on whether Vijay could convert election promises into concrete governance frameworks without ending up reversing or impeding the remarkable economic growth that Tamil Nadu had attained under Stalin, and earlier under the leadership of Jayalilatha. Vijay’s take on industries and foreign investment, for instance, remains insufficiently articulated.

A mass actor who could not produce even a single meaningful cinematic production in his entire career, other than churning out the regular mass hero content, should not be expected to excel as an administrator or visionary politician, lamented a journalist in Chennai, requesting not to be named.

Analogies are being drawn with M G Ramachandran a.k.a. MGR, the matinee idol, who split from the DMK to form the AIADMK, swept elections and ran the state unchallenged for over a decade, and was known as a populist and welfarist.

However, MGR was the poster boy of the Dravidian movement since the 1950s, and even served as the treasurer of the DMK from 1969 until being expelled in 1972. Though his first government of 1977 did not have many experienced ministers, MGR’s administration for over a decade is hailed as one of absolute welfarism that befits a socialist state.

In contrast, Vijay was not directly associated with any political party or movement, other than occasional activism, including declaring solidarity with the Anna Hazare movement in 2012. Vijay’s welfare activities were channelled through his fan club (Rasigar Mandram), like most other movie stars.

Vijay, with statues of the icons installed at his party headquarters

Vijay decided to take the plunge in politics only after the Dravidian stalwarts – Jayalalitha and Karunanidhi – left the scene, and a leadership vacuum was lamented about in Tamil politics, which his senior colleagues, Rajnikant and Kamal Hassan, failed to fill despite their political plans and actions.

Hence, claims about Vijay repeating an MGR could be premature, though none of the political observers The Polity talked to was ready to write him off.

With the kind of win Vijay pulled off in such a short time, many expect him to excel in office. Furthermore, Vijay carries on his shoulders the expectations of the GenZ, with most analyses well before the election acknowledging that voters in the 18-35(39) age group are vouching for the actor. Post-election analysis shows that Vijay also attracted a sizable part of women's votes, besides cutting through conventional caste-based vote banks.

Before the polling, many observers were sceptical about the vote share Vijay could garner and the number of candidates, mostly political freshers, who could be winnable to some extent.

Other than the top leadership layer in TVK – N Anand, CTR Nirmal Kumar, Aadhav Arjuna, Rajmohan Arumugham, Nanjil Sampath, K.G. Arunraj, and to some extent, John Arogiyasamy, who was the election strategist, few in TVK could have the kind of political exposure or governance to take the reins of a large state like Tamil Nadu.

From the current leadership, only K.A. Sengottaiyan has been a minister earlier, having served multiple times in the Jayalalitha-led and EPS-led governments.

TVK's core leadership: Aadhav Arjuna (left), N Anand (centre), CTR Nirmal Kumar (right)

Yet, Vijay’s electoral sweep has been such that his party not just relegated the DMK and AIADMK to distant thirds, with his party member even defeating CM Stalin in Kolathur. Rather, even in constituencies and districts where TVK candidates could not romp home, they received a considerable number of votes, echoing the predictions of the DMK district leader cited at the beginning of this report.

Take for instance, the Tenkasi district, where, despite the TVK failing to win any seat, its candidates garnered votes ranging from 45000 to 60000 votes. Some reports point to Vijay setting a template by fielding Dalit candidates even from general seats and ensuring their win in many districts.

This being the ‘Vijay effect’ in the 2026 Tamil Nadu assembly elections, political analysts are yet to come to terms with the sweeping electoral win by TVK, and are debating reasons why the DMK, despite being widely expected to retain power, lost in this fashion.

According to Yogendra Yadav, who spoke to the BBC, the TVK sweep was because people of the state, especially the younger generation, were seeking an alternative to ‘corrupt’ DMK and ‘communal’ AIADMK (thanks to its alliance with BJP), and, hence, saw Vijay as the promising alternative.

While Stalin was widely perceived to have performed well, despite allegations of corruption and nepotism – especially anointing his son Udhayanidhi Stalin as his successor – a second return of the DMK in Chennai, after sweeping the Lok Sabha seats in two consecutive elections – 2019 and 2024 – seemed to have created a voter fatigue.

Vijay's potential cabinet: C Vijayalakshmi, the sole woman in TVK leadership (left), K.G. Arunraj, an ex-IRS officer, and K.A. Sengottaiyan, a former AIADMK minister who joined TVK - could likely be ministers in Vijay's cabinet, if he manages to form the government

Similarly, the AIADMK had fractured towards terminal decline with EPS refusing reconciliation with other powerful leaders from the party – O Pannerselvam or OPS, who joined DMK and won from the traditional stronghold of Bodinayakanur after a tight race with the TVK candidate, and V.K. Sasikala, the aide to Jayalalitha, who formed a party of her own and tied up with the Ramdoss-led Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) faction.

At the time of finalising this report, however, the DMK leadership is reportedly mulling a proposal from EPS, seeking support to form a government.

With a combined strength of 68 of DMK alliance (minus the INC) and 53 of AIADMK (if PMK stays in the alliance), the combined strength of 120 (without the BJP) will give the two Dravidian parties the majority to form a government, provided Stalin accepts AIADMK supremo E Palanisami or EPS becoming Chief Minister again, despite being from the third largest party, and both parties agree on a Common Minimum Programme.

Such an alliance, uniting two parties from the same political staple, will be a turning point for Tamil Nadu and its decades-long Dravidian politics. Whether the BJP’s sole MLA would be part of the show will be another interesting twist to the tale.

Will Stalin (left), with DMK leaders, and EPS (right), at a poll campaign, join hands to keep out Vijay?

The Kerala conundrum: VD v. KC v. RC  

Having romped home with a record tally of 102, with Congress having 63 of its own, the UDF, in the immediate aftermath, does not seem to be in celebratory mode. The Front seems to be in a quandary over a problem predicted to happen long before the election date was announced – who will lead the new government as head of the alliance?

While Leader of Opposition (LoP) in the outgoing state assembly, V.D. Satheesan, has been the favourite, having led the Front since the 2021 debacle, the other two contenders – former LoP and party’s state president Ramesh Chennithala, and Organising Secretary of the All India Congress Committee (AICC), K.C. Venugopal, are strongly in the race for the chair.

Satheesan, since taking over a LoP, had spearheaded the Congress’s campaign through multiple bye-elections in the state, ensuring win in all instances, besides also leading the party and the front to a major comeback in the local bodies poll of December 2026.

In an interview with a local network, Satheesan claimed that Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi had entrusted him with the task of winning in the assembly election and that he had fulfilled the task with a resounding victory. The Polity spoke to many district-level and booth-level leaders in Kerala, who overwhelmingly credit Satheesan for the election victory and desire him to be the Chief Minister.

Ramesh Chennithala, on the other hand, is a veteran leader who feels he has the strongest claim to the CM chair. However, Chennithala’s claim remained weakened throughout as he had failed to lead the party and front to power in 2021, despite being the undeclared CM candidate during that election.

The 2021 debacle had a stronger effect on Chennithala’s career as it was the first-ever second-time return of a front, with Pinarayi Vijayan returning to power with a stupendous tally of 99 seats. Chennithala was then denied the LoP position with the AICC leadership preferring Satheesan for the position, and signalling leadership transition to a new generation.

Who will be the CM: V.D. Satheesan (left), Ramesh Chennithala (centre), and K.C. Venugopal (right)

Hence, many observers feel Chennithala will not be the high command’s choice while considering him for a senior ministerial position, like Finance, or as the speaker of the new assembly.

At the time of this writing, Venugopal is rumoured to be favoured by the AICC leadership to take over as CM despite not being an elected legislator. There are also contrasting reports that the Congress high command will decide on the new leader only after knowing the choice of the elected legislators and the UDF allies.

Yet, many political observers point out that the majority of legislators were chosen as candidates by Venugopal, using his heft as organising secretary, and, hence, they will support him for the position. At the same time, Venugopal was recently appointed as Chairman of the Public Accounts Committee in the Parliament.

Furthermore, his appointment as Chief Minister will imply a bye-poll for the Alappuzha Lok Sabha constituency, which will entail a strong race, especially since there is strong sentiment in the state against his elevation to head of the state government.

A senior District Congress Committee (DCC) leader, who spoke to The Polity on condition of anonymity, feels that AICC will not take such an unwise decision by overlooking two front-runners from among the elected legislators to force a sitting Member of Parliament as its eventual choice.

However, a senior journalist in Thiruvananthapuram, who preferred not to be named, pointed to the instances of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka, where the Congress high command decided on senior leaders, overlooking claims of those who had spearheaded the campaign in those state elections. “If Gehlot was preferred over Sachin Pilot in Rajasthan and Siddaramaiah over D.K. Shivakumar in Karnataka, despite the latter two spearheading the election campaigns, it will be no surprise if Venugopal or Chennithala is chosen over Satheesan in Kerala,” he remarked.

In Thiruvananthapuram, the Congress camp remains tense as any choice other than Satheesan is likely to create major ripples for the party in the state, including widespread rebellion and return of faction politics in bigger terms. For the dominant sentiment in the Congress in Kerala is that “the general who led from the front should be the leader.”

Will it be K.N. Balagopal as LoP and P. Jayarajan as CPM state secretary, or will that be of the younger duo of Muhammad Riyas and M Swaraj? 

On the other hand, there is talk of the ‘captain’ who led the LDF from the front might abandon ship and may not prefer to take over a LoP in the new assembly. Other names doing the rounds include outgoing Finance Minister K.N. Balagopal and outgoing PWD Minister Mohammed Riyas, who is also Vijayan’s son-in-law, and long rumoured to be his preferred successor.

Irrespective of who takes over as the LoP, the CPM is slated not just for a leadership transition but also for intense debates on the reasons for the party’s defeat and whether Vijayan will take the blame for this rout. The only solace the communists could have, in the meantime, is the imminent leadership fights in the Congress, likely to spiral into a major feud in the coming days.

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