As Bangladesh’s important election draws closer, in Part II of this series on the pre-electoral landscape, Dipannita Maria Bagh and Tapas Das provide a deeper glimpse into the political dynamics at play in two key divisions – Rajshahi and Khulna. Both divisions share a porous border with the Indian state of West Bengal, with one having a sizable Hindu electorate. Interestingly, even the Jamaat-e-Islami, a party with a contentious history regarding religious minorities, has fielded Hindu candidates here. This calculated move lays bare the complex socio-religious undercurrents beneath the electoral overtone. The stakes are higher with Tarique Rahman, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s Chairman and projected to be the next Prime Minister if BNP wins, throwing his hat in the ring in the Rajshahi division. The question cutting through the political noise in this context is: in Rajshahi and Khulna, where identity politics meets strategic calculations, who will hold political power, and at what costs will they retain it?
Home image - Jamaat-e-Islami cadre praying at a political rally
Text page image - Bangladesh Nationalist Party leader holding up 'sheafs of paddy,' the party's election symbol
Banner image - Two imposing figures of Bangladesh politics: Khaleeda Zia, who passed away last month, and Professor Muhammad Yunus, whose reign may come to an end with the formation of a new government, following the February 2026 elections
With Bangladesh’s general election less than a fortnight away, the national capital, Dhaka, has become the echo chamber of competing voices, where the country’s hallmark political sloganeering has reached a fever pitch. A total of 2,582 nomination papers were submitted for 300 parliamentary constituencies nationwide, averaging 8 per constituency.
Dhaka-18 and Gazipur-2 recorded the highest number of nominations, with 18 each, while Pirojpur-1 had the fewest, with only 2 candidates. According to the Election Commission (EC), following rigorous scrutiny, a total of 1,842 candidates were declared valid. The stakes have never been higher for a reimagination of the electoral system, and all political parties are aware of this.
The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), the veterans having perfected the craft of political sloganeering over decades, has deployed its sharpest weapon to capture the youth vote: “Tarunnyer Prothom Vote, Dhaner sisher pokhye hok” (let the youth’s first vote be for the sheaf of paddy), its party symbol. It is considered a direct assault on the loyalties of first-time voters, wrapped in the symbolism of prosperity and tradition.
Image: The BNP symbol (left), the erstwhile No Boat, No Vote electoral slogan of Awami League (centre), and NCP leader lamenting on the disputes over electoral symbols
Meanwhile, the now-banned Awami League’s defiant “No Boat, No Vote” slogan lingers as a bitter reminder of a once-dominant force now sidelined, its message reduced to an act of resistance from the political wilderness.
But the real disruptor in this electoral theatre is the National Citizen Party (NCP), the force born from the July 2024 uprising, and the newest party in the fray. Their chant pulses through rallies with revolutionary fervour: “Jagche Tarun, Asche Alo, Shaplakolite seal maro” (the youth are awakening, light is coming, cast your vote for the water lily).
For new voters taking their first step into the political arena, the NCP’s message is unambiguous: “Tarunnyer Prothom Vote, shapla kolir pokhye hok” (let the youth’s first vote be for the water lily). It positions the party not as another option on the ballot, but as the embodiment of change itself—a calculated gamble that the hunger for transformation runs deeper than party loyalty.
However, beyond the glare of national media and international observers, Rajshahi and Khulna are quietly heating up. In the second instalment, we review electoral developments in these two divisions.
This analysis covers the Khulna division districts of Khulna, Kushtia, Jhenaidah, and Meherpur, as well as the Rajshahi division districts of Rajshahi, Bagura, Natore, and Joypurhat. Both divisions are contiguous to the Eastern part of India and share a border with West Bengal.
Rajshahi is predominantly a stronghold of the JeI, whereas the Khulna division is demographically Hindu-dominated, a factor with substantial implications for the upcoming election.
Image: Maps of the Khulna and Rajshahi divisions; source - Wikivoyage and Wikimedia Commons
A survey report by the private organisation Eminence Associates (EASD), conducted from December 20, 2025, to January 1, 2026, with a sample of 20,495 people across 300 constituencies nationwide, reveals that 70 per cent of respondents intend to vote for the BNP.
Public opinion favouring the Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) stands at 19 per cent. Presenting the survey results, EASD Chief Executive Shamim Haider Talukdar, stated that 77 per cent of people believe the BNP will form the government.
The recent Jagannath University Central Students Union (JNUCSU) election results have exposed a striking vulnerability in the Bangladesh Nationalist Party’s (BNP) electoral prospects. The Islami Chhatra Shibir-backed panel, ‘Odommo Jobian Oikko,’ delivered a decisive victory over BNP-aligned forces, capturing 16 of the 21 posts.
At the same time, the BNP’s allied ‘Oikkoboddho Nirbhik Jobian’ managed only five seats, a margin that speaks to deeper fractures in the latter’s student base. What makes the result more damaging for the BNP is that this occurred despite Tarique Rahman’s return from self-imposed exile, which was expected to energise the party’s student wing, the Chhatra Dal.
Instead, the outcomes reveal that Rahman’s presence has failed to translate into tangible support even at an institution like Jagannath University, where the significant Hindu student demographic might have been expected to favour the BNP over Islamist-backed competitors.
The defeat carries weight in the Bangladesh political landscape, where student union victories have historically and reliably predicted national electoral outcomes. The pattern is unambiguous: those who command the campuses tend to command the country.
Hence, the BNP’s unimpressive show, in a Hindu-dominated university, could prove fatal, especially in these constituencies, if not at the national level, or reflecting the political mood of the nation’s youth.
Image: The location of Khulna and Rajshahi divisions and their contiguity with India; source - Wikimedia Commons
Khulna Division
The Khulna Division has 36 Jatiyo Sangsod seats distributed across ten districts. Of the 275 nomination papers submitted in the Khulna region, 196 remain valid for candidature. The electorate has expanded by 780,000 voters, raising the total from 13.4 million to 14.2 million. This includes 7,118,542 male voters and 7,108,884 female voters.
Meanwhile, the number of third-gender voters in the Khulna division increased by 47, bringing the total to 134.
Among the districts, Jashore leads in voter growth with 107,211 new registrations, followed by Kushtia (83,058), Jhenaidah (75,291), Satkhira (70,201), Magura (51,857), Narail (35,570), and Meherpur (24,640). The number of polling centres has been reduced nationwide from 30,253 to 27,083.
Incidentally, the Khulna division has experienced a surge, with Bagerhat (with 64,138 new voter registrations) recording the largest increase, adding 60 polling centres. A similar trend has followed across Khulna (47), Satkhira (7), Meherpur (6), Magura (5), Jhenaidah (3), Jashore (2), and Narail (1), except Chaudanga (with a 43,058 increase in new voters), which uniquely saw a reduction of five polling centres.
Despite the ten-month early preparations by political parties in the division, electoral trends appear to become clearer as polls approach. In addition to the BNP-JeI contestation, the Khilafat Majlis has pitted 32 candidates for its political battle in Khulna.
Within the JeI, the only notable change is the replacement of its Khulna-1 (Dakop-Batiaghata) candidate, Maulana Abu Yusuf, with Krishna Nandi, who currently serves as president of the party’s Dumuria Upazila Hindu Committee.
Crucial constituencies include Khulna-5, which underwent a major realignment. Since the BNP allocated this seat to JeI, a former ally, following the formation of the 2001 four-party alliance, no BNP candidate has contested it for 29 years. Ali Asgar (Lobby) now breaks this pattern as the BNP nominee, challenging JeI Secretary General and former MP Miah Ghulam Parwar.
The emergent split was argued in the first article of the series.
Similarly, in Khulna-6 (Koyra-Paikgachha), another JeI stronghold, the race now features BNP’s S.M. Monirul Hasan Bappi (Sheaf of Paddy), JeI’s Md. Abul Kalam Azad (Scales), Islamic Andolon’s Md. Asadul Fakir (Hand Fan), CPB’s Prashanta Kumar Mondal (Sickle), and Jatiya Party’s Md. Mostafa Kamal Jahangir (Plough).
Traditionally a BNP stronghold, Kushtia is experiencing the most intense campaign, with surging intensity across its four constituencies. While the BNP confronts internal fragmentation, with multiple aspirants competing for nominations, the JeI has adopted a disciplined single-candidate strategy for each seat.
In Kushtia-1 (Daulatpur), a border constituency with nearly 400,000 voters, BNP’s Reza Ahmed (Bachchu Molla) is pitted against JeI’s Maulana Belal Uddin. Ahmed seeks to reclaim a seat the BNP held for three consecutive terms before 2008.
Image: Location of Jashore (left), Jhenaidah (centre) and Meherpur (right) districts of Khulna Division; source - Wikimedia Commons
Meanwhile, in Kushtia-2 (Mirpur-Bheramara), Barrister Ragib Rauf Chowdhury continues his father’s political legacy for the BNP. JeI’s is Alhaj Md Abdul Gafur, a former Upazila Chairman and current district Naib Amir.
Kushtia-3 (Sadar) constituency, comprising 15 unions and over 439,000 voters, has witnessed renewed political energy following the August 2024 political transition. All major parties view this central constituency as a critical test of strength in a district that has historically alternated among the Awami League, the BNP, and the Jatiya Party.
In Jheneidah, the political landscape is heating up as major parties finalise their candidates across four key constituencies, with Jamaat-e-Islami and the BNP positioning themselves for a high-stakes contest.
The JeI’s early candidate announcements have provided nearly a year for grassroots mobilisation across Jhenaidah. The BNP, despite finalising its official slate, faces internal friction and rebel candidacies that have disappointed local activists.
Jhenaidah-1 (Shailkupa) initially experienced internal BNP rivalry when Jayanta Kumar Kundu threatened to run independently before ultimately withdrawing. Former Attorney General Asaduzzaman now leads a unified BNP challenge against JeI’s ASM Matiur Rahman, who has leveraged his early nomination to establish organisational depth.
In Jhenaidah-2 (Harinakundu and Sadar), another BNP has the nomination of district president, MA Majid. He confronts the JeI’s heavyweight candidate and district Ameer, Ali Azam Abu Bakar, as well as candidates from the JaPa and Islamic Andolan Bangladesh.
Jhenaidah-3 (Moheshpur and Kotchandpur) remains a Jamaat territory, where Professor Maulana Matiar Rahman aims to capitalise on the party’s established vote bank.
Jhenaidah-4 (Kaliganj and Sadar) epitomises the BNP’s internal turmoil – the party’s decision to nominate Rashed Khan, formerly of Gono Odhikar Parishad, triggered protests and prompted Saifur Islam Firoz to launch an independent candidacy. The JeI’s Maulana Abu Talib, campaigning for over a year, seeks to exploit this division.
The Meherpur district presents a direct BNP-JeI confrontation, with marginal JaPa participation. Both constituencies have three validated candidates following nomination scrutiny.
Meherpur-1 (Sadar-Mujibnagar) features BNP veteran Masud Arun, a former MP and central executive member, against Jamaat district Ameer Md. Tajuddin Khan and JaPa’s Abdul Hamid. Three other BNP aspirants were disqualified for lacking official nomination letters, consolidating party support behind Arun.
Meherpur-2 (Gangni) brings forward BNP’s Md. Amjad Hossain, who previously won this seat in 2008. His nomination followed intense internal conflict with district president Javed Masud, whose supporters staged violent demonstrations.
While party unity concerns persist, the primary challenge comes from Upazila Jamaat Ameer Md. Nazmul Huda. Md. Abdul Baki represents the Jatiya Party but is unlikely to affect the outcome significantly.
Image: Former attorney general Asaduzzaman of BNP (left), JeI's Secretary General Miah Ghulam Parwar (centre), and Md Moniruzzaman Montu, district leader of BNP in Khulna (right)
Rajshahi Division
The Rajshahi Division comprises 39 Jatiyo Sangsod seats across the eight districts: Bogura (7), Rajshahi (6), Naogaon (6), Sirajganj (6), Pabna (5), Natore (4), Chapai Nawabganj (3), and Joypurhat (2).
Out of the 260 nominations filed, 185 survived the vetting process for the upcoming election. But the real story lies in what did not happen: 42 seats drew five candidates or fewer, with 16 constituencies barely scraping together four contenders. In Pirojpur-1, just two candidates—BNP’s Alamgir Hossain and JeI’s Masud Sayedee—face off in what amounts to a binary choice.
Rajshahi, the so-called ‘Silk City’ and educational nerve centre, enters this election transformed. The Awami League’s collapse in August 2024 created a political void that the BNP and JeI are racing to fill.
With 2.27 million voters—a 1.5 per cent uptick from last cycle—the stakes are substantial. The previous regime’s disarray is complete: its leaders face legal action, its machinery has seized up, and its voters are up for grabs.
The BNP has scrambled to rebuild grassroots infrastructure but faces the classic problem of scarcity breeding conflict: too many aspirants, too few seats. The party’s solution: two fresh faces paired with four veterans, a calculated hedge between renewal and experience. The JeI, by contrast, locked down its candidates early and moved quickly. Discipline beats desperation to maximise the electoral gains.
Image: Lord Shiva temple at Puthia, Rajshahi (left), photo credit - Tanweer Morshad; and the Choto Shona Mosque in Chapai Nawabganj, Rajshahi (right), photo credit - Rocky Masum
The rubber meets the road in Rajshahi’s electoral landscape. At the district level in Rajshahi-1 (Godagari-Tanore), BNP’s Major General (Retd.) Sharif Uddin is pitted against JeI’s veteran Professor Mozibur Rahman. The constituency’s ethnic and Hindu minorities—522,254 residents—have become focal points of targeted outreach, their votes potentially decisive in tight margins.
Rajshahi-3 (Paba-Mohanpur) offers 416,909 voters and a mixed urban-rural demographic. BNP’s Shafiqul Haque Milon, a former Metropolitan General Secretary, squares off against JeI’s Abul Kalam Azad, who chaired the Hargram Union Parishad for 27 years. The seat was an Awami League stronghold from 2008 onward, but with that party absent, the battlefield belongs to whoever can mobilise more quickly.
Rajshahi-4 (Bagmara) brings 354,664 voters into a polarised contest between BNP’s D.M. Ziaur Rahman and JeI’s Dr Abdul Bari. Internal BNP fissures may hand the JeI an opening—divided parties rarely win close races in the region’s nascent electoral spaces.
Bogura, where the BNP’s heir apparent Tarique Rahman makes his stand (in Bogura-6 Sadar), is the election’s marquee contest. The BNP’s chairman, Tarique Rahman, is on the ballot, contesting a seat his mother, Khaleda Zia, held from 1991 to 2008 across four consecutive victories.
The constituency—449,000 voters strong, encompassing Bogura municipality and 11 unions—was the BNP’s fortress until the Jatiya Party’s Nurul Islam won unopposed in 2014 during the BNP’s election boycott.
The seat’s recent history reads like a political thriller. In 2018, BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir won but refused to take the oath, keeping the seat vacant. In the subsequent by-election, BNP’s Golam Md. Siraj won, then resigned under party orders.
Image: The Rooppur Nuclear Plant, Bangladesh's sole nuclear power project, is also located in the Rajshahi division; photo credit - Sanvi Ahmed Saim
This was followed by the Awami League’s Ragibul Ahsan taking the ensuing by-election and holding it through 2024. Now, with Awami League sidelined, the seat returns to its default setting: a possible BNP heartland.
The Natore district showcases a different dimension of Bangladesh’s electoral landscape: wealth on display. At least 11 candidates have declared assets worth millions of Takas, including all four BNP nominees across the district’s four constituencies. In Natore-1, BNP’s Farzana Sharmin and three independents declare millionaire status.
In Natore-2, BNP’s Ruhul Quddus Talukder and his wife Sabina Yasmin both filed wealthy returns. The pattern continues through Natore-3 and Natore-4, highlighting wealth that is surprisingly absent among the party's ordinary voters.
Joypurhat is a textbook example of the collision of party loyalty and local ambition. In Joypurhat-1 (Sadar-Panchbibi), the BNP fielded Md Masud Rana Prodhan, the son of the late MP Mozahar Ali Prodhan.
The move triggered immediate protests from rival factions backing other local leaders. Rana faces JeI’s district Ameer, Md. Fazlur Rahman (Sayed), who has been door-to-door for months while the BNP sorted out internal disputes.
Joypurhat-2 (Akkelpur-Kalai-Khetlal) presents a messier picture. BNP nominated former secretary Abdul Bari (DC Bari), prompting blockades and protests from followers of former MP Golam Mustafa, who responded by entering as an independent; the split could prove fatal for the party.
Meanwhile, JeI’s SM Rashedul Alam, a former Upazila vice-chairman, observes the BNP’s splintering and assesses his chances.
An intense electoral battle in store?
Amid the resolution of the BNP’s leadership transition, the country’s administration has remained controversial. While Tarique Rahman has assumed the chairmanship of the BNP, its traditional counterpart, the Awami League, has sought to consolidate Sheikh Hasina’s leadership from abroad, despite the death sentence against her.
At a recent press meet in Delhi, Awami League leaders dismissed talk of a government-in-exile while simultaneously asserting plans to reclaim governance. This suggests that despite their physical absence from the domestic field, the Awami League remains committed to a centralised leadership structure.
The Jammat-e-Islami is attempting something unprecedented: broadening its appeal beyond its traditional Islamist base. The party nominated a Hindu candidate in Khulna; a move designed to signal inclusivity and potentially fracture vote banks that might otherwise default to BNP or secular alternatives.
Meanwhile, the Khelafat Majlish has fielded candidates across most seats in Hindu-populated regions, adding to the transformation of many constituencies into BNP-JeI showdowns. Old coalition patterns have shattered; new arithmetic is emerging.
Internal party dynamics will likely determine outcomes in contested areas. The BNP, dormant for years, struggles with organisational rust and nomination backlash. The party tried to balance grassroots leaders with fresh faces, but generated pushback from veterans who felt passed over. Friction is the byproduct of scarcity meeting ambition.
Image: Women participants at a BNP election rally
The Jamaat presents a tight organisational structure: its candidate selection is unified, and internal dissent is minimal. Whereas the BNP offers a dozen voices arguing over strategy, the JeI speaks with a single voice.
The BNP nominees battle each other for position, whereas the JeI candidates were seen to have begun campaigning the day they were selected. In close races, such discipline could be the margin of victory.
Bangladesh’s 13th parliamentary election in these two divisions is not just about filling 39 seats in the Rajshahi Division or determining control of Khunla. It concerns who will fill the space left by the Awami League following its fallout in August 2024.
How voter-roll manipulation in each division shapes perceptions of electoral legitimacy, and whether the BNP’s organisational weaknesses can prove fatal against the JeI’s disciplined efficiency.
The stats are simple: divide your opposition and you win. The execution, as always, will determine the country’s future trajectory.
(Views expressed in this report are the authors' own.)
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