US President Donald Trump's meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi on 13th February 2025 in Washington has revealed the shape of things to come in India-US relations in the next four years.

The whole world has been carefully watching the domestic and foreign policy decisions of President Donald Trump from the moment he returned to the White House after an interregnum of four years. While many allies and adversaries of the United States had displayed considerable anxieties over Trump's return to power and justifiably so, Indian political leadership appeared completely stress-free.

However, some of the statements made by President Trump both days and weeks before his inauguration and their reiteration after assuming office have unnerved close friends and partners of the United States while keeping the rivals guessing.

When President-elect Trump addressed Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as Governor Trudeau, it was embarrassing for Canadians. But when he expressed his desire to make Canada the fifty-first state of the United States, it startled them. Yet, the Canadian government responded in kind when President Trump announced a 25 percent tariff in retaliation to Ottawa’s insufficient handling of illegal immigrants along its border.

However, following a flurry of calls between both leaders, Canada backed down by promising additional troops to be deployed along the order.

Mexico first complained against Trump’s announcement of renaming of Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America but could do little to prevent it. When Trump imposed a 25 percent tariff hike unless Mexico stopped illegal migrants from entering the US, Mexico too had done what Canada subsequently did – imposed retaliatory tariffs and then promised additional troops to handle the immigration concerns of the US President.

Trump's allegations against Panama for charging unfairly high fees to the US commercial shipping and his complaint against rising Chinese influence over Panama were resented by the Panamanian government. But Panama was silenced soon after Secretary of State Marco Rubio landed in Panama and forced it to withdraw from China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects.

President Trump similarly voiced his desire to buy Greenland and was confronted by strong opposition from Denmark and some European powers. In response, it was suggested by Danes that Denmark could buy California if that state was on sale! But soon Denmark showed its willingness to negotiate more US military presence in Greenland instead of handing it over to the US even as voices emerged within Greenland in favour of Trump’s proposal.

President Trump's repeated statements on NATO and Vice President JD Vance's statements backing the Far-Right parties in Europe now threaten the Trans-Atlantic unity, making the decades-old America-Europe partnership enter a danger zone.

It is in the background of such developments that one needs to examine the Trump-Modi summit and its outcome.

Modi 3.0 meets Trump 2.0  

Two major issues threatened to disrupt the India-US strategic partnership in the wake of Trump's victory in the 2024 US presidential election: Trump's obsession to punish countries that charge high tariff rates on US exports and his determination to deport millions of undocumented immigrants back to their countries of origin.

Trump had used these two issues extensively in his presidential election campaign and reiterated his strong positions even as the President-elect thus declaring the intent to pursue his agenda.

Immediately after this second presidential inauguration, Trump carried out his threats by signing numerous Executive Orders. He once dubbed India as the “Tariff King.” His team had identified and listed about 18000 illegal immigrants from India to be deported. According to some reports, over 700,000 Indian illegal immigrants live in the United States and face eventual deportation.

The reason India was relatively less anxious about perceived uncertainties surrounding the Trump 2.0 administration was its experience with the first Trump Administration. Trump’s first presidency was equally vociferous about the perceived unfair treatment of US exports by countries running large trade surpluses and charging higher tariff rates. Like other countries, India too then encountered pressures and had to retaliate against unilateral tariff hikes on steel and aluminium by the US administration.

In addition, the Modi Government was able to strike the right balance and had preserved, and, perhaps, even strengthened the US-India strategic partnership despite differences over several issues.

Prime Minister Modi had begun his third term in office months before the 2024 US presidential election. The Government of India was carefully monitoring the election campaigns in the US. Anticipating the potential victory of Donald Trump and its possible consequences, New Delhi had apparently readied itself to ensure a strong partnership with the US by resolving differences and promoting areas of convergence in the bilateral relationship.

After the US presidential election results, India understood that the Trump 2.0 administration would be materially different, while the main planks of Trump’s foreign policy would qualitatively remain the same.

Trump’s second presidency was expected to be materially different due to the experience Trump had during his first administration, the clear mandate that the American voters gave to him and the thorough preparation that his committed followers and advisors had made to take charge from the first day of his inauguration.

As far as the illegal immigration issue was concerned, India accepted the fact that the US had the right to deport illegal immigrants and conveyed to the Trump Administration officials that it would accept the return of illegal Indian immigrants with due verification of their identities. This is essential because people of Indian origin from other countries could also have set foot on American soil without proper documentation.

As a matter of fact, the first of the immigrant-laden US military planes landed in Amritsar before PM Modi even landed in Washington. While handcuffing and shackling of the Indian immigrants did not go down well with the Indian public, that permission was given to the US military plane to land in India indicated the acceptance of American legal provisions.

The Columbian President, for his part, had refused permission for such US planes carrying handcuffed illegal immigrants. However, the stand-off was reportedly defused after the Colombian government agreed to send its own aircraft to fetch its citizens on illegal stay in the US. Bogota’s backing down was reportedly over Trump’s tariff threats.

Playing the Trump game to India’s benefit

Before the Modi-Trump summit, the government of India had also taken steps to reduce tariffs on some import items from the United States. The new budget provision changing the tariff rate was expected to signal the Trump 2.0 administration that India is prepared to accommodate American concerns over the tariff issue.    

Thus, before their meeting, the two fundamental issues in the bilateral relationship had been addressed to some extent and the rest was supposed to be sorted out through negotiations.

Interestingly, certain geopolitical factors that impacted India-US relations for quite some time also stopped becoming irritants, thanks to President Trump’s differential approach as opposed to the previous administrations or even traditional American policy. One was India’s refusal to condemn the Russian aggression against Ukraine, and, the second was related to India buying Russian oil.

President Trump’s approach to the Ukraine War is fundamentally different from that of his predecessor. Trump often claimed that the war would not have taken place if he had been in power. He forcefully pointed out that he would end the war on the very first day of his inauguration on the 20th of January 2025.

Although a complex war could not have been resolved in one day, his determination to play a role in ending the war is clear to all. At the time of preparing this commentary, the US Secretary of State had already conducted one round of negotiations with his Russian counterpart in Saudi Arabia, and President Trump has also upped the ante by calling Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky a dictator and blaming the war on him. 

Trump’s view that the war should not have taken place and Modi’s assertion that it is not the era of war have many things in common.

The Biden Administration was tangibly unhappy over Indian purchases of Russian oil. President Joseph Biden was more interested in fighting the Russians through proxy than in appreciating the Indian need to buy cheaper energy resources from any source.

President Trump, in contrast, displayed no such annoyance over the India-Russian energy deal. Moreover, he has proclaimed intent to sell American oil and gas to India. In fact, India was forced to buy American gas earlier when it was made difficult to buy Iranian oil due to sanctions imposed on Iran by the first Trump administration.

India is prepared to buy American gas yet again as part of the efforts to humour the American president and resolve the issue of American trade deficit vis-à-vis India.

The third geopolitical factor that concerns India’s ties with the United States is China. Trump took strong measures against China on trade issues during his first term and practically unleashed an economic Cold War against Beijing. Trump also revived the Quadrilateral Security Initiative to expand US interest and involvement in the Indo-Pacific during his first tenure.

India too faced difficulty in carrying forward positive and cooperative relations with China in view of the Galwan Valley incident that damaged the bilateral trust that had been built during previous decades.

Neither Trump nor Modi believe in any containment strategy. Both want to make China a stakeholder in Indo-Pacific affairs and contribute to peace and stability. Putting the Galwan Valley incident behind, the Modi government had renewed its efforts to restore normal ties with China much before meeting Trump in February this year.

While Trump continues to pressure China to practice fair trade, he is willing to maintain cordial ties with China. In all good gestures, Trump invited President Xi Jinping to attend his inaugural ceremony, spoke to him over the phone, and made positive comments about him before the media, unlike his predecessor. Trump also gave 90 days to TikTok to look for an American buyer and sought Chinese cooperation in addressing the Ukraine War issue.

While Trump appears willing to help resolve the India-China territorial dispute, both Beijing and New Delhi prefer to sort out their differences in bilateral dialogue. President Trump seems to have no issue with that. 

Thus, by the time Prime Minister Modi met President Trump in the White House, for the first time an Indian leader met an American President within weeks of the inaugural ceremony, there were signals that the meeting would bring positive results.

And it did.

That the extradition of Mumbai 26/11 terrorist attack accused, Tahawwur Rana, to India, which was announced by Trump, is indicative of deeper collaboration between the two countries in counterterrorism efforts.

Furthermore, the strategic partnership between the two countries is destined to be further strengthened with the declaration of a new ten-year framework agreement for defence cooperation. This will be buttressed by high-end defence sales, including the possible sale of the formidable F-35 or Joint Strike Fighter aircraft, which was hitherto seen as a frontline, fifth-generation fighter jet that could only be used by the US, NATO partners or major non-NATO allies.

A whole set of new weapon platforms including the Javelin missile, reconnaissance/maritime patrol and heavy-lift transport aircraft, and combat drones are also reportedly slated to be sold to India through the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) framework.    

However, it must be admitted that everything is not going to be milk and honey in India-US relations. The changing geopolitical order being impacted by the Trump 2.0 administration and the fact that Trump sought to announce ‘reciprocal tariffs’ while Modi was already on US soil indicates that eventual agreements to resolve bilateral differences might be a tough nut to crack.

However, President Trump’s latest rants about his conversations with PM Modi and his insistence on charging reciprocal tariffs embody more of an early enthusiasm without a realistic understanding of the impact of such actions, an inclination for optics and playing to the gallery, and above all, a desperation to project himself as a deft deal-cutter.

If these patterns are taken into consideration, PM Modi’s summit with the Trump administration came across as an effective strategy to: (a) gauge the ‘mood’ of the new administration and its gameplan, and (b) play the cards well to protect India’s interests by seeming to adhere to the Trump playbook. 

By these standards, PM Modi’s visit should be seen as productive and limiting the damage that was expected out of Trump’s administration with India being the likely target of the tariff onslaught after impetus seen as Canada, Mexico and China. Instead, despite Trump’s attempt to embarrass the Indian prime minister by announcing reciprocal tariffs hours before the summit have had minimal impact as the reciprocal tariffs, by Trump’s own admission, were announced as a standard US policy rather than an India-tailored one.

By catering to Trump’s deal-cutting obsessions through commitments on across-the-board purchases of American goods – from oil, gas, and weaponry – to reducing import duties of US-origin bourbon, PM Modi seemed to have negated the ‘trade surplus’ fury that had embodied Trump’s confrontational approach towards India before this visit.

PM Modi’s visit, evidently on India’s initiative, could, thus, be seen as a successful endeavour that limited the damage from Trump’s giant offensive, placated his egoistic elements and effectively eliminated the monstrous imagery that was built around India’s trading policies even as Trump 2.0. now turns its attention to greater geopolitical calling from the conflict zones and Washington’s outreach to other great powers.

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