In the forthcoming assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party (SP) will be going it alone, dispelling hopes of an alliance with the Indian National Congress (INC). 

On the other hand, the SP leadership had, some weeks earlier, asked the INC unit in Uttar Pradesh to identify seats in which the party seeks to contest and their potential candidates for these seats. The SP leadership, though, cautioned that identifying seats does not guarantee any seats and that ‘allies’ should not demand seats merely to increase their seat share.

The rift in Madhya Pradesh, meanwhile, had reached a showdown with an eventual intervention from the INC high command cooling the frayed tempers and Akhilesh Yadav, the SP chief, calling for a truce. The SP announced on November 1st that it will contest 65 seats in UP and leave the rest 15 for the Indian National Democratic Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A, referred to as INDIAlliance henceforth) in the 2024 polls. 

It is thus evident that the seat-sharing imbroglio between the allies of this grand coalition in one state, particularly those parties with multi-state presence and in the bigger states, will have ripple effects for the coalition in other states, and, as a consequence, the umbrella coalition at the national level to take on the Modi juggernaut in 2024. 

For one, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, when put together, account for a major share of Lok Sabha seats (80+29) and the failure to cobble up a working alliance in these big states will prove detrimental for the opposition grouping in the 2024 general elections. 

Second, if the SP-INC alliance, which was considered fait accompli, runs into trouble, the question arises of the fate of the coalition and its equations, particularly in those difficult states where members of the grand opposition alliance were hitherto in direct face-offs.

Finally, the intransigence of the INC in Madhya Pradesh will not be a welcome sign for the alliance members who will see a resurgent Congress as holding the pivot in the run-up to 2024. While a stronger big player will be advantageous to the coalition, the presence of many ambitious leaders in the grouping, who have their leadership dreams and agendas, makes this a difficult proposition.  

The elder patriarch of the grand formation, Sharad Pawar, paraphrased the situation with the remark that the opposition is split now but will unite in 2024. Will that realistically happen? 

A Rubik’s Cube of political hues

As the INDIAlliance - a conglomeration of 28 political parties from the opposition ranks - takes form and shape at the national level, the first signs of struggles in the seat-sharing for the five upcoming assembly seats indicate that the going will not be easy. 

The formation has been on shaky footing right from the outset, over its many inherent contradictions and political agendas that pulled it apart towards different directions. The lack of a common ideological mooring, other than the anti-right plank, and the inability to frame an alternative narrative to the nationalist-laissez-faire model of governance makes the alliance still a dicey stitchwork. 

The nomenclature underlining ‘inclusivity’ indicates a ‘left of centre’ political orientation for the alliance. For the socialist and left parties, this is an ideal path which is being piloted by Rahul Gandhi through his secular, pro-poor, and anti-crony capitalist pitchforking of the last many years. 

However, this may not be the preferred pathway for political emancipation for many others in the grand formation. The Shiv Sena (UDT), for instance, holds allegiance to the Hindutva line of thought and has always seemed to be just a few compromises away from realigning with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) camp. With Mumbai, the commercial capital, being its political base, Shiv Sena has no qualms aligning with the corporate majors of all hues.

Sharad Pawar and his Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), despite the Congress lineage, seem to foresee a brighter and pragmatic future in the ‘right of centre’ direction. Pawar Sr’s open dalliances with the Adani group, following his defence of the most preferred industrialist of the ruling dispensation on the Hindenburg reports, merely coincided with the rebellion and split triggered by nephew, Ajit Pawar, and subsequent alignment with the BJP. Few political observers in the country can hazard a guess on the actual political gameplan of Pawar Sr. 

The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the Trinamool Congress (TMC), with rich cash bags, hold substantial leverage with the sheer number of seats they already have and are likely to garner in 2024 as well. Despite their left-of-centre and secularist ideological roots, both parties have, in the past, shown their ability to assimilate with political transformations and corporate realignments. Both parties were part of the NDA during the Vajpayee years and are known to be industry-friendly, notwithstanding the Trinamool’s Singur blemish.

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) remains as much an outlier as much as it looks to be integral to the alliance’s game plan. With its eclectic ideological character, the party is capable of taking extremes, from the left to the right end of the political spectrum. Besides its flexible adaptation of soft Hindutva even while appealing to minorities, the party has its support base deeply entrenched in the trading community. Characteristically, the AAP treads on a dogmatically parallel track with both the INC and the BJP at the same time. Hence, what will be its endgame in 2024 is still rip for speculation. 

That leaves the INC to shoulder both the ideological burden of the grand formation and spearhead the contest at the national level, notwithstanding the uneasiness of many alliance partners in allowing the Congress to take centre stage. An effective show in the five upcoming state elections, including capturing/retaining power in at least 3 of them, will invariably reinforce the INC’s status as the pivot of the opposition formation.   

Yet, the SP-INC slugfest embodies the political reality that the going is not easy for the alliance or the grand old party, at its helm, in negotiating the arduous journey towards the 2024 showdown. At the core of the problem is the conundrum of seat sharing and stitching up state-wide fronts in order to project a united political campaign. 

Quest for a counter-narrative 

The scenario of a motley crowd of political leaders taking on a highly popular leader with a nationwide sway and omnipresence invariably gives the advantage to the leader than to the disparate gang of political opposites, which, in turn, kindles perceptions of one versus the rest or a David vs Goliath imagery gaining traction.   

Seat-sharing blues and friendly contests apart, the onerous task for the INDIAlliance is to frame a political narrative that could provide a sound alternative to the Modi-centric narrative, which revolves around slogans like ‘Amrit Kaal’ and ‘New India’, and is pivoted by variables like a laissez-faire economy, stable governance led by an omnipotent leader and an anti-corruption crusade with sustained targeting of opposition leaders. 

The INDIAlliance, for its part, presents a package of inclusivity, secularism and a revival of the socialist order as the panacea for inflation, unemployment and the hatred-filled socio-political milieu that has emerged through the 9 years of the Narendra Modi regime. 

The key question is not whether this alternative has found substantial support among the masses, but about how much dent it could create in the ruling party’s concerted public messaging. The victories in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka have convinced the Congress leadership that its counter-narrative pegged on the success of Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra, has begun to show an impact at the ground level. 

Votaries of the government have showcased the ever-expanding expressways across the country, the semi-high-speed trains of the Vande Bharat and Namo RapidEx kind, the revival of the economy from the pandemic impact as among symbols of the prominent governance imprints and the impact of a stable government at the centre. There are also latent attempts to stake credit for events like the Chandrayaan’s Moon landing, the G-20 Summit and medal gains at the Asian Games.  

The opposition alliance, on the other hand, has harped at the high rate of inflation and unemployment as evidence of the failures of governance, which, according to the INC leadership, is skewed more towards the oligarchs than the common man. The massive subsidization of LPG cylinders in Congress-ruled states and the raging demand for restoration of the Old Pension Scheme are indicators of the opposition alliance seeking to place their bets on reviving the erstwhile socialist modes of governance and public policy. 

The contest invariably seems to be between an order that favours the foundations of nation-building and economic growth being reinforced through the shoulders of the private sector, and an alternate order that flames with the caution that relying solely on the private sector will be hazardous, as was evident in the massive layoffs and atrophy of MSMEs during the pandemic, and, prior that, due to the impact of measures like demonetization. 

The Modi government has tried to counter the unemployment clamour by announcing the filling up of over 10 lakh government jobs. However, the contours of this public recruitment exercise have raised eyebrows not just for the fact that the Prime Minister personally distributes the offer letters every time, through a televised national event, but also for the fact that information is scarce on the processes behind these public employment exercises. 

Unlike in the previous decades when recruitment bodies like the Staff Selection Commission, Union Public Serve Commission and Railway Recruitment Board used to notify vacancies every calendar year, the public recruitment model of the Modi regime is underlined by the opacity of the selection process, claimed to be undertaken through Rozgar Melas. 

Most relevant it becomes to ask why the PM personally distributes the offer letters every time. Evidently, at no time in independent Indian history has such public employment rallies been projected as the individual initiative of a leader nor used as a means for political propaganda.  

Notwithstanding such pompous public outreach exercises, the fact that the Modi government had limited public employment during the greater part of his two tenures has only been compounded by initiatives like the Agnipath, which ended permanent recruitment at the non-officer level in the armed forces, and, thereby, the long tradition of the armed forces as means for lifetime employment and social security for the youth of the country. 

That the armed forces are reported to be mulling an increase in the permanent intake from the current 25 percent to 50 percent from the Agniveers who complete 4 years of service is a clear indication that the forces are feeling the pinch of this ill-conceived fiscal prudence strategy. 

The counter-narrative from the INDIAlliance, in fact, promises a restoration of the old order of public employment and banishing schemes like Agnipath once in power. Whether these promises have kindled any interest or hope among the young generation in the country can only be gauged in the 2024 general elections. 

While bread-and-butter issues could diminish the impact of campaigns like ‘Amritkaal’ and ‘New India’, the aura of invincibility surrounding PM Modi remains the core perceptive strength for the ruling party. This perception is further propelled when PM Modi presents himself as a strong leader with the ability for transformative politics with recognition on the global stage.

However, what gives him a distinct edge is how he manages the national narrative, single-handedly, which, in fact, is most palpable when it comes to his self-projection as an anti-corruption crusader. By unleashing the investigative agencies against the opposition leaders, PM Modi seeks to present himself as a messiah against corruption even when he reins over the richest party in the country and his specific relations with some business leaders being termed as crony capitalism. 

Yet, the advantage continues to rest with him for the simple reason that neither the INC nor the INDIAlliance has managed to counter his anti-corruption messaging or divert the nation’s gaze on the BJP’s deep cash kitty. At the time of this writing, the Supreme Court was hearing arguments on petitions challenging the Electoral Bonds for its lack of transparency and how its mechanism is programmed to favour the ruling party. 

While the extent of anonymous political donations through Electoral Bonds has unravelled at these hearings, the spectre of corporate funding continues to remain an enigma. The opposition parties, while themselves being confronted by numerous investigations of corruption in states where they are in power, have, for their part, failed to turn the lens on the ruling party at the centre and its financial system whose funding sources also remain a mystery. 

The inability to frame an anti-corruption narrative of its own keeps the INDIAlliance on a weak footing. 

I.N.D.I.A’s nemesis states 

The SP-INC seat-sharing imbroglio seems a harbinger of things to come. Anticipating many friendly contests and the innate incompatibilities associated with this peculiar political formation, the INDIAlliance masterminds have made it clear that the alliance parties will contest the Lok Sabha elections “together as far as possible,” and that seat-sharing arrangements in different states should be concluded in a “collaborative spirit of give-and-take.”

The scenario that unfolded in Madhya Pradesh, and its corollary effect in Uttar Pradesh, shows that give-and-take will not be such an easy proposition. While the SP-INC arrangement was supposed to be a fait accompli, the actual challenge was expected to be in a few other states where friendly contests or amicable seat-sharing seemed an insurmountable hurdle. 

By that standard, the expectantly ‘nemesis’ states for this rainbow alliance could have included Delhi, Punjab, West Bengal, and Kerala, besides seat-sharing hurdles in a host of other states with multi-party contests. A closer look will reveal the inherent dynamics. 

Delhi: Having unseated the Congress and its three-time chief minister, Sheila Dikshit, in 2013, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) have since dominated the capital city-state’s local politics with near-total control over the assembly and wresting back the local bodies from the BJP. While the Modi aura had stymied the Arvind Kejriwal-led party’s ability to get any of its Delhi members to the Lok Sabha, the AAP’s rise in Delhi was at the cost of the Indian National Congress, which, shared political space with the BJP since the state’s formation.     

In the 2021 Delhi assembly elections, the Congress was seen to be withdrawing from forcing a three-corner race in order to ensure that the anti-BJP votes were not split. This is despite an effort to reach an understanding on seat sharing in Delhi, which, according to reports, failed due to AAP’s insistence on similar arrangements to other states where AAP was preparing to fight the assembly polls.  

Despite the AAP-BJP binary dominating Delhi’s politics and the Congress drew a blank in the 2015 and 2020 assembly elections, the grand old party out-performed the AAP in the 2019 Lok Sabha election by coming second in most of the seats and securing over 23 percent vote share as opposed to the 18 percent that AAP garnered. 

The seat-sharing negotiations for Delhi in the run-up to 2024, in all likelihood, are set to be an intense tussle with both parties expectantly seeking to gain an upper hand in sharing the seven seats, which makes an equal distribution impossible. 

While the Congress could cite its 2019 vote share to claim an upper hand in the Lok Sabha pegging order, the AAP is likely to rely on its numbers in the assembly and local bodies to seek a higher share. Having been out of power in the state for over a decade, the INC will have to settle down for a 4-3 arrangement with AAP leading the coalition in the capital. 

Punjab: Having repeated the Delhi feat of 2013 in Punjab by dethroning the Congress from power in 2022, AAP will seek a similar upper hand in the INDIAlliance equations when it comes to seat sharing in Punjab for 2024. Like in Delhi, both parties will have different terms of reference when it comes to seat-sharing claims. 

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, Congress secured over 40.57 percent vote share while the AAP had only 7.46 percent. The political winds drastically changed in the next few years, thanks to internal bickering in the INC, which led to AAP sweeping power in 2022 with a vote share of 42.1 percent to win 92 seats in the assembly and the INC restricted to 18 seats with just 22.98 percent of the vote share. 

Having taken centre stage as the dominant party in Punjab, the AAP, like in Delhi, will seek a lion’s share in 2024 with Congress having to play second fiddle to Arvind Kerjiwal’s party. How amicably could this settlement be reached would determine the fate of the coalition in the state. 

West Bengal: The actual litmus test for the INDIAlliance is in West Bengal where three of the prominent coalition parties – Trinamool Congress (AITC), INC and CPI(M) – are in face-to-face contests. In a state where TMC holds absolute domination and has effectively checked the rapid rise of the BJP, the state of the CPI(M) and INC remains confined to the political margins. 

The Congress has long been an outlier in the state’s politics despite stalwarts like Pranab Mukherjee and present house leader in the Lok Sabha, Adhir Ranjan Chowdhary, hailing from the state but hardly managing to make any impact beyond their small pockets of influence. For the grand old party, which struggles to create a decisive impact in each election, it has, of late, been about either tagging along with the left parties or the AITC. Being part of an AITC-led alliance coalition in West Bengal in 2024 will only be a convenient proposition for the INC. 

The trouble for the INDIAlliance in West Bengal is about the political rivalry between Trinamool and the CPI(M), which, unlike the INC-AAP equations in Delhi or Punjab, is beyond easy reconciliation. Bengal was once the bastion of the CPI(M) and pivoted its presence and leverage in national politics. After being ruthlessly unseated from power by the Trinamool, the CPI(M) role and space in Bengal politics has trickled down to the margins. 

With no presence in the state assembly and no member in Lok Sabha of its own from the state, the CPI(M) has an opportunity to make a comeback in West Bengal, ironically, by riding on the back of the Trinamool. This is, however, an electoral possibility that the CPI(M) is yet to come to terms with. The decision to stay out of the INDIAlliance coordinating committee, despite the CPI(M) general secretary, Sitaram Yechury being the co-drafter of the first resolution, indicates the reluctance to have accord with its political bête noire. 

Though the direct contest with the Congress in Kerala could also be among the reasons behind the CPI(M) decision to stay out of the committee, the fact that INC-CPI(M) bonding at the national level is cordial makes the Bengal factor becoming conspicuous as the key catalyst behind this decision. 

Unless the party decides to undertake a shift in its approach, the INDIAlliance in West Bengal will see a unique three-corner fight in which the Trinamool-led group, including the Congress, Forward Bloc, CPI and other Leftist parties, will take on the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the CPI(M) standing out as a fragile challenger to both. 

Suffice it to note that the CPI(M) still holds a significant cadre base in West Bengal, which, when combined with the organisational strength of Trinamool, could provide a significant edge to the INDIAlliance. In fact, joining hands with Trinamool will benefit the CPI(M) and facilitate its significant return to the national scene, provided the AITC agrees to part with a considerable number of seats for its erstwhile rival.   

Kerala: The politics of the southern state has for many decades been about a direct contest between the CPI(M) and the Congress, both leading ideological fronts aligned along leftist and centrist politics in sync with the state’s socio-cultural milieu. The BJP, despite its significant presence in the state, has not made electoral gains beyond the sole assembly seat gained in 2016 and wrest back by the CPI(M) in 2021. 

Consequently, the INDIAlliance loses all political relevance in Kerala in 2024 as the contest in most of the 20 seats will be between the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) with both these parties in direct face-offs in majority of the seats. The BJP is a strong contender only in a handful of seats like Thiruvananthapuram and Trichur, where it managed to come second in 2019. 

The Kerala contest is critical for both parties for various reasons. For the Congress, the 19-seat sweep in 2019 enabled the Kerala unit to become the critical mass in the parliamentary party during the ongoing term. The INC national leadership will seek to replicate this performance in 2024 as well in order to augment its overall numbers and to keep its pivotal position in the Alliance. The expectant anti-incumbency sentiment against the ruling LDF government drives the confidence of the local Congress leadership of a repeat of the 2019 feat. 

For the CPI(M), however, a prolific performance in Kerala in 2024 is critical in retaining its erstwhile standing and leverage in national politics. With no high expectations of a revival in West Bengal if going alone in 2024, a major comeback in Kerala, aiming at 10-15 seats, is vital for the Left parties in general, and CPI(M) in particular, to be a significant force in national politics in 2024 and beyond. 

Maharashtra: A precursor to the INDIAlliance was the Maha Vikas Agadi (MVA) in Maharashtra, on the lines of the Mahagatbhandan formed in 2015 in Bihar and reestablished in recent years. While the joining of Lohia-ites in the Gangetic belt with the Congress was nothing unusual, the possibility of bringing together the Congress and the Shiv Sena on a common platform was a political coup. 

The MVA, formed by the Shiv Sena, NCP and the Congress in 2019, set the tone for disparate parties, even with ideological incompatibilities, to come together for a common anti-BJP cause. That the Modi regime managed to break up even the MVA only gave more relevance to such political tie-ups wherein many parties across the cross-section found a common cause in seeing the BJP as a threat to their political existence. 

In managing to split both the Shiv Sena and the NCP, the BJP not only exposed its hunger for power but also enabled a realignment of forces in many states. The split in MVA means that the Congress, which was relegated to the third place in the pegging order, will retain the central position in a state where it held the Chief Minister’s chair even on occasion when its alliance partner, the NCP, had more seats. 

While Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray continue to hold clout in Maharashtra politics, the split in their parties drastically diminishes their ability to call the shots in the MVA equations when seat sharing is negotiated in the run-up to 2024. 

With most of the MPs from both the NCP and Shiv Sena flocking to the NDA through their splintered entities, and most of them likely to stake claim to their sitting seats, the INC will have a stronger claim over these seats than allow the NCP or Shiv Sena to find alternatives in places where their cadre strength has been split down the middle. 

Unless Sharad Pawar pulls any tricks in the run-up to 2024 or Uddhav Thackeray decides on a reunion with the NDA, the existing equations within MVA are unlikely to change. In the event of any political realignments which see the NDA gathering more numbers in the state, it will still be an advantage to the Congress, which will have more seats in its kitty, though its ability to win as many seats may still be doubted. 

The leadership race 

Lastly, a major factor which makes the INDIAlliance a disjointed political formation is the leadership ambitions within the group. From Rahul Gandhi to Mallikarjun Kharge to Sashi Tharoor from the INC, Nitish Kumar of JDU, and Arvind Kejriwal of AAP to Akhilesh Yadav of SP, the number of prime ministerial aspirants is quite a handful in the rainbow coalition. 

That the opposition alliance as a grand political formation against one man is destined to only favour the loner is a likelihood already mentioned earlier. That a handful of leaders seek to project themselves as an alternative to the most popular political leader in the country is hardly likely to favour the grand alliance in any manner, and may remind voters of the messy third front politics of the 1990s. 

The leaders of the INDIAlliance need to realise that their alliance is pegged against Narendra Modi than the BJP, which, only takes second position in India’s national politics to the omnipotent and omnipresent imprint of the Indian prime minister.