Days before the trip to the Western hemisphere leading one of the seven groups formed by the Government of India to take the message of Operation Sindoor across, Shashi Tharoor, the Congress Member of Parliament from Thiruvananthapuram was asked for a response by a Malayalam television journalist to the widespread speculation about his joining the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

His instant response – from right outside the venue where he chaired the Parliament Standing Committee on External Affairs – was to refuse any comment. He, though, went on to add: “There is unwanted speculation on this matter. If everyone is going to join the BJP, what will come of democracy?” However, Tharoor emphasized that his intention of joining politics was to “serve the nation,” and that he would be available for any such assignment that entails a ‘national duty.’

The call of ‘national duty’ seems to be beckoning the flamboyant Congress leader, who, understandably, feels wasted in the opposition benches, which he adorned for the past 11 years. Tharoor had on numerous occasions expressed his desire to be the country’s foreign minister. After his 2009 debut in the Lok Sabha, Tharoor served as the junior foreign minister in the second United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government.

With the advent of Narendra Modi and his continuous return to power, Tharoor might have seen his ministerial prospects being foreclosed for the distant future. That is unless, of course, a change of guard happens in 2029 and the Congress gallops to a considerably strong position wherein Tharoor could be the natural choice for the external affairs ministry.

In the current situation, wherein he has considerably ruffled the feathers in his own party, 2029 and beyond might look like a mirage for his ministerial dreams.

The ongoing camaraderie with the Modi regime comes at the end of a long rebellious streak when Tharoor contradicted the party line on national issues on numerous occasions, indulged in unmitigated praise of the Prime Minister on various matters and sought a privileged position of espousing independent takes on matters, often touted as a ‘principled position,’ despite his coveted membership in the Congress Working Committee (CWC).

Earlier this year, Tharoor had vented his frustration on not being primed for any political assignment by the Congress by stating that he had “other options,” though moderating the statement with his writing and speaking engagements.

In 2023, he had also stirred the pot in the faction-ridden Kerala unit of the party by throwing his hat into the perceptive race for the chief minister chair if the party comes to power in Kerala in 2026. Tharoor then managed to get feelers of support from the Indian Union Muslim League, the Nair Service Society (which had earlier shunned him as ‘Delhi Nair’) and sections of the party cadre who vouched for him as a radical change from the battle-worn Kerala leaders.

The decision to contest the Congress presidential race in late 2022 also provided him much ground, despite the party establishment backing Mallikarjun Kharge as the Gandhi family’s choice. Earlier, he had joined the ranks of the in-house ‘revisionists,’ which included former Gandhi family loyalists, who had sought organisational reforms after the 2019 debacle.

While the members of this corrective force did not support Tharoor in the AICC presidential race, his decision to contest and gain a decent number of votes brought him the CWC membership, even when senior leaders from his home state, like Ramesh Chennithala, had to contend with a permanent invitee status.

From the CWC high, Tharoor has now hit a ‘nationalist’ low in the Congress party with his open espousal of Modi’s ‘causes’ in recent months to the extent that his performance in the Western hemisphere has prompted Congress leader Udit Raj to describe him a “BJP super spokesperson.”

Where does Tharoor’s political future go from here? Is his exit from the Congress imminent? If so, what role will Modi earmark for Tharoor in his cabinet or government?  

Clearly, the Congress leadership had stretched a long rope to this ‘global citizen’ – as his legions will like to call Tharoor – by often ignoring his rebellious streak, including Modi's praises, and, on occasions, engaging in conciliatory talks with him amid calls from various quarters within the party, especially from Kerala, for disciplinary action.

It is evident that the party leadership will not throw down the gauntlet by initiating any disciplinary action or expelling the Thiruvananthapuram MP.

Rather, it would expect Tharoor to follow the example of many Congress leaders – Jyotiraditya Scindia, Amarinder Singh, Rita Bahaguna Joshi, RPN Singh, Jitin Prasada, Anil Antony, and so on – who left the party on their own by citing “Modi’s leadership” as their inspiration to join the BJP. The call of ‘national duty’ will be an explanation ample enough for Tharoor’s entry into the BJP, where he could be expected to be welcomed on a red carpet.

In fact, BJP leaders are already proactive in ‘defending’ Tharoor in the light of criticism from Congress leaders on what they see as Tharoor’s “conduct of foreign policy on behalf of Modi,” in the words of a senior Congress leader who spoke to The Polity on the condition of anonymity.

Incidentally, the Malayalam television channel that interviewed Tharoor after the Standing Committee meeting reported that PM Modi had earmarked a ‘special assignment’ for the Congress MP pertaining to External Affairs, and will be done in a manner that will not affect his Lok Sabha membership or attract the provisions of the anti-defection laws.

While any such ‘special’ assignment on external affairs that could match Tharoor global profile may necessarily end up duplicating the duties of the External Affairs Minister (EAM), S. Jaishankar, it could be a foregone conclusion that the former’s acceptance of such a privileged engagement will not be accepted by the Congress.

Thereby, Tharoor’s appointment by the Modi government in any assignment, beyond the scope of the current 7-group all-party delegation, will invariably conclude in his exit from the Congress. The immediate implication will be his resignation as a Lok Sabha member from Thiruvananthapuram.  

Final innings in Lok Sabha?

For those who have closely followed Tharoor’s politics of the last few years, this eventuality was long predicted.

Months before the Lok Sabha election of 2024, Tharoor had declared that this would be his last Lok Sabha election and that he would contest a fourth and final term from Thiruvananthapuram if the Congress party chooses him. For a charismatic personality who is still considered a ‘youth icon’ despite being in his 60s, this declaration by no means implied an end to his political innings by 2029, if elected from Thiruvananthapuram for a fourth time, which he eventually was.

Rather, the statement pointed to a new innings that could have to go beyond his Lok Sabha stint and potentially cut off the umbilical cord with the Congress party. Accordingly, the events of the last many months indicate Tharoor’s pursuit of a new direction for his political future and to fulfil his ministerial ambitions, which necessarily require a shifting of allegiance.   

While this might not have an element of urgency as indicated by the current developments, it is inevitable that Tharoor could provide impetus to his political career only by joining the BJP where a ministerial position would be assured, even if at a little later stage. However, Tharoor’s exit from the Congress and joining the BJP will imply a bye-election to the Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha seat.

In his first outing of 2009, Tharoor won with nearly a lakh margin and garnered a 44 percent vote share. This dropped to 15470 votes in 2014 on account of the tough fight by O. Rajagopal of the BJP, with the latter leading until the final rounds of counting. In a conversation with The Polity editor in 2019, Tharoor recalled that 2014 was his toughest election, especially in the light of the personal tragedy and related controversies he confronted on election eve.

In 2019, Tharoor made a dramatic comeback by winning with close to a lakh margin, riding on the Rahul Gandhi-in-Wayanad wave, and the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), sweeping the Kerala seats with most of its candidates crossing the one lakh margin. Cut to 2024, Tharoor faced a 2014-like scenario when BJP’s Rajeev Chandrasekhar led in most of the rounds till the final stretch and Tharoor’s fortunes revived only in the last lap and winning with a margin of 16077 votes.

While Chandrasekhar was considered a rank outsider at the beginning of the 2024 election campaign, his formidable performance in assembly seats like Kazhakuttom, Vatiyoorkavu and Nemom, which are all sitting seats of the Communist Party of India (Marxist), was evidence of the deep inroads the BJP has made in the state capital.

Accordingly, if Tharoor joins the BJP, it will be tough to predict whether the BJP will prefer Tharoor to contest again as the BJP candidate or whether Chandrasekhar, who is now the BJP Kerala unit chief, will be preferred. As the state chief, Chandrasekhar has better chances of leading the BJP in the 2026 assembly election and is likely to contest from Nemom or Kazhakuttom.

Tharoor, on the other hand, survived the close races in 2014 and 2024 thanks to the ‘secular’ votes, particularly from the coastal belt and southern part of the district with a substantial presence of minority votes. Despite Tharoor’s support of the Vizhinjam project and the declaration that he was instrumental in facilitating the Adani group’s entry, he is seen to have garnered the winning votes from the coastal communities who are opposed to the project.  

Accordingly, as a BJP candidate in Thiruvananthapuram, it will be difficult for Tharoor to retain his ‘secular’ vote bank. However, he could still be in the reckoning if the BJP’s organization heft in the district adds up to the personality cult that Tharoor has developed in the constituency and extends beyond the Congress party.

However, the defining aspect of Tharoor’s political relevance in Kerala is his credentials – as a secular and progressive public intellectual whose principled positions may often be at odds with the ideological moorings of not just the Modi regime, but the Sangh Parivar as such.

Ideology remains the hurdle

Yet, it is ideology where the Tharoor phenomenon may stumble in its path through the corridors of the Sangh Parivar. The days when Tharoor was at the receiving end of the Parivar’s anger for his statements like “Modi is like a Scorpion sitting on Shivling,” and “we cannot let India turn into a Hindu Pakistan” would cause potential irritants in his journey towards the right, if at all or when taken.

In fact, Tharoor’s years in Indian politics since 2009 could be profoundly identified with his ideological battles with the Sangh Parivar.

Elaborating on his controversial description of “Hindu Pakistan,” Tharoor wrote in his book, Why I am a Hindu, that “the BJP/RSS idea of a Hindu Rashtra is the mirror image of Pakistan -- a State with a dominant majority religion that seeks to put its minorities in a subordinate place. That would be a Hindu Pakistan, and it is not what our freedom movement fought for, nor the idea of India enshrined in our Constitution.”

In his articulations on religion and politics, Tharoor had consistently sought to distinguish between Hinduism and Hindutva. One such explanation goes thus:

“To my mind, a religion that respects different points of view, and is open to the possibility of finding the truth in various, often contrasting ways, is the perfect religion for our times. Of course, most Hindus have never been brought up to believe, as unfortunately, members of the Sangh Parivar do, that Hinduism is the best faith and that anyone who disagrees should be hit on the head — that’s not our belief.”

Tharoor had also consistently berated the Modi government for its attempts to change the Constitution, and also the Sangh’s “revolting hypocrisy” on Mahatma Gandhi, particularly its perceived sympathy for the latter’s assassin, Nathuram Godse.  

While he admires Sangh icon Deen Dayal Upadhyaya’s humanistic thinking, Tharoor has been vociferous in emphasizing pluralism as lying at the heart of Indian secularism.

In one essay, he stated thus: “I believe that in the Indian context, secularism just means pluralism. A Western dictionary will tell you secularism is the absence of religion, but in India, with our profusion of religions, such a definition would never work. In India, therefore, secularism is intended to mean respect for all faiths, where the government doesn’t privilege any one of them.”

In all such espousals, Tharoor had been emphatic in stating that the Sangh Parivar does not speak for ordinary Hindus like him. Yet, despite such deep dialectical contestations with the Hindutva brigade, Tharoor is also seen to be a proponent of the ‘Soft Hinduism’ posturing that the Congress has adopted since the Modi regime took charge.  

In his detailed critique of Tharoor’s book Why I am a Hindu, social scientist Kancha Ilaiah Shepherd attacks Tharoor for standing by Brahminism and for “feeling proud that he was born a Hindu from the feet of the Brahmin god.” Shepherd forecasted in 2018 that while this “surrender may keep him in the Congress now, but also take him into the BJP camp as things unfold.”

Alleging that Tharoor’s ‘Hinduism’ suits him personally and politically, Shepherd sees him as “a politician who wants to keep one foot each in two camps, the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party.”

The present-day buzz about Tharoor and his expectant assimilation with the BJP, and by consequence the Sangh Parivar, could be seen as a manifestation of what Shepherd terms about the second foot – not about the one in the BJP camp but about the other one being pulled out from the Congress boat.  

For, Tharoor’s response to the direct question on whether he will be joining the BJP, as discussed at the beginning of this report, was a smug dismissal rather than an agitated retort to what should, otherwise, have been an uncomfortable question. There was no lamenting on the threats to secularism and the constitution which has been habitually echoed against the Modi regime. Instead, Tharoor produced the most evasive response about democracy and, at the same time, projecting the pivot of his current politics – the nation first.

Eventually, this could be the slogan and the political vehicle that many expect will facilitate Tharoor’s ride to the BJP headquarters, and into PM Modi’s cabinet. To emphasize this point, a Congress leader in Thiruvananthapuram who spoke to The Polity on condition of anonymity, asked this question: “If BJP was in power in 2009, he would have certainly joined the ruling party than the opposition.”

It is Tharoor’s renewed pitch about the nation, national interests and national security that seems to be framing the ideological dossier that could justify his expectant integration with the Modi ecosystem.

External Affairs, HRD, or something else?

The special assignment pertaining to external affairs that PM Modi is mulling for Tharoor, as reported by the Malayalam channel, looks unlikely due to reasons listed earlier: disapproval of the Congress to any assignment in the Modi government, the improbability of a Cabinet rank position related to external affairs that will end up duplicating the EAM’s portfolio, and losing the Lok Sabha membership in the event of a political association with the Modi regime.

The easier and more realistic way forward for Tharoor will be to voluntarily resign from Lok Sabha, join the BJP, obtain a ministerial position, and get into the Rajya Sabha from any of the BJP-ruled states. While this looks like the probable route, the key question will be about his ministerial portfolio. With Jaishankar entrenched in the role of the EAM, few would hazard a guess now of Tharoor replacing him at Jawaharlal Nehru Bhawan.

However, it remains a fact that Jaishankar’s conduct of foreign policy has been increasingly under a shadow, particularly the faux pas over Operation Sindoor wherein he is seen telling the media that Pakistan was informed at the start about the Indian strike on identified terror assets. Rahul Gandhi had raised this as a reason for the Pakistan Air Force to be on alert and allow them the opportunity to target India’s air assets, as was claimed in the hours after the first Indian strikes.   

In contrast, Shashi Tharoor is seen to have led an effective campaign in the Western countries where the delegation he led had gained considerable coverage with Tharoor’s own articulations about India’s position receiving considerable appreciation.

Tharoor as EAM and Jaishankar as NSA?

In this milieu, the Modi government will considerably gain by appointing Tharoor as the External Affairs Minister, which, though will imply Jaishankar – whose record in the Foreign Office was otherwise glorious – being chugged out of office. In the event Tharoor replaces him in the Foreign Office, Jaishankar could be appointed as the National Security Advisor (NSA), which will entail the Indian Foreign Service legacy returning to helm the national security establishment.  

In the March 2025 report titled A PS-II for PM Modi: Time ripe to ‘retire’ the ‘old guard,’ The Polity had discussed the need to replace the ‘old guard’ at the highest level in the Modi Government including the Principal Secretary-I and the NSA in order to infuse fresh blood and new thinking. Similarly, in the latest edition of Delhi Diary, The Polity has pointed out the domination of the Indian Police Service (IPS) in the national security establishment, and its implication for nuclear policy and the functioning of India’s nuclear deterrence structures.

Tharoor’s appointment as the Foreign Minister and Jaishankar as the NSA would impart a dramatic transformation to the Modi government and enhance its international profile besides enabling moderation and prudence in policymaking resembling that of the Atal Bihari Vajpayee era when the Jaswant Singh-Brajesh Mishra managed India’s international outreach.

Tharoor as the HRD face, if Sangh agrees

On the other hand, if PM Modi wishes to maintain the status quo vis-à-vis the foreign ministry and national security establishment, the other promising ministerial portfolio for Shashi Tharoor will be Human Resources Development (HRD) which handles the education sector in the country.

A critical ministry for the Sangh Parivar, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) would have preferred only an ideologically rigid mind to handle this ministry, which is key in shaping the thought processes and intellectual indoctrination of future generations. As a matter of fact, it was RSS veteran Murali Manohar Joshi who handled the HRD portfolio during the Vajpayee years.

On the contrary, PM Modi did not show similar rigidity with new-generation BJP leaders like Smriti Irani, Prakash Javedekar, Ramesh Pokhriyal, and currently Dharmendra Pradhan heading the portfolio. While Irani, a college dropout, was a surprise choice, Modi had brought in major policy changes, notably the New Education Policy (NEP), despite not having a powerful RSS personality at the helm of the ministry.

Like in the External Affairs Ministry, Tharoor also served as a junior minister of HRD in the UPA government between 2012 and 2014. As a respected public intellectual and author of numerous books with progressive ideas on education and scholarship, Tharoor has the potential to excel and shape the transformation of the sectors. Besides being able to effectively implement the NEP, Tharoor could make essential tweaks and course corrections to make the policy more acceptable and a working mechanism to transform India’s education sector.  

Though the RSS may not be particularly impressed about Tharoor being in the HRD ministry, the Parivar could take solace in the fact that the crucial ministry will be in seemingly competent hands and that the western-educated Tharoor will be pliable to their suggestions and inputs.

BJP’s Kerala CM face?

Beyond these ministerial chances, the BJP could also use Tharoor in the 2026 assembly election campaign in Kerala, where he, along with Rajeev Chandrasekhar, could be among its popular faces, particularly among the younger voters. In fact, projecting Tharoor as the chief minister face in the 2006 Kerala election could also do wonders for the BJP, which is making rapid strides in the state.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, BJP candidates led in at least 11 assembly seats across Kerala, came second in a few and garnered close to 3 lakh voters in close to a dozen. The edge gained in 11 seats could convert into victories in the upcoming assembly election in a state where Congress, out of power for two consecutive terms, is facing a major credibility test.

There is also talk about a secret channel of cooperation (Andhardhara) between the CPM and BJP with the objective of keeping Congress out of power for a third term in the state.

Tharoor’s entry into Kerala’s politics as BJP’s leading face, thus, has the potential to trigger massive transformations in not just the state’s political but the socio-cultural landscape as well where Christians are also now increasingly flocking towards the BJP.

Seen holistically, avenues are aplenty for Tharoor’s political future if he makes the crucial decision to crossover to the BJP in the coming days.

As the national media intensely debates where the current discourse over Tharoor’s ‘national duty’ will be headed for in all its political manifestations, The Polity could also remind that once in the BJP, Tharoor could also be in contention for a bigger ticket – Modi’s potential successor from the party!