The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) issued its first list of 195 candidates in 16 states and two union territories for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections, which is expected to be announced in the next few days if not weeks. The list features many veteran leaders, a vast majority of sitting members of parliament, replacements in at least 33 of the sitting seats and a handful of new faces in many other seats not yet in the party’s kitty.

The list represents both continuity and change and a blend of experience and experimentation through relatively newer faces. While several considerations including social representation, local political factors and projecting an impulse for change might have come into play, many of those lost out could have been on account of not just political calculations for each state but also performance records, going by the standards exacted by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The ruling party has projected its confidence by declaring 51 of the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh, 24 of the 29 in Madhya Pradesh, 15 of 25 in Rajasthan, 15 of 26 in Gujarat, and 20 of the 42 in West Bengal, the relatively bigger states. It may be recalled that the BJP holds 62 sitting seats in UP, 28 in MP, 24 in Rajasthan and 18 in West Bengal. Incidentally, the BJP also declared 12 candidates in Kerala where over 20 seats are at stake.

The other bigger and more crucial states in terms of the number of seats, which include Karnataka (28), Maharashtra (48), Bihar (40), Orissa (21), Andhra Pradesh (25), and Tamil Nadu (39) may not have figured in the first list probably owing to the alliance dynamics or due to lesser seats in the BJP account.

For example, though the BJP is a formidable player in Karnataka, the recent alliance with Janata Dal Secular (JDS) necessitates seat-sharing arrangements, having faced off in many seats in 2019. Similarly, in Bihar, the return of Janata Dal-United (JDU) to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) fold calls for tight bargaining in many seats. In Maharashtra, the field will be messy with the splinter groups of Shiv Sena (Shinde) and Ajit Pawar-led Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) expected to indulge in abject lobbying for as many seats in order to stake a claim for the second position after the BJP in the NDA pecking order in the state. In Orissa, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, where the BJP is yet to make any decisive difference, the list could be drawn only after considering local factors including potential new alliances in some of these states, namely the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) in AP and All Indian Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) in TN, likely to return to the NDA. Also, tacit understanding with the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) in Orissa and the YSR Congress in AP will entail fielding candidates that may not upset the underlying political dynamics.

Continuity and change

By fielding the veterans including senior cabinet ministers and the vast majority of members in states like UP, MP, Rajasthan and so on, the BJP leadership exhibits confidence in the continuity and performance of its parliamentary cadre in these crucial states where the party’s critical mass is formed in the lower house. At the same time, the party has not hesitated to replace some time-tested hands with new members thus also signalling the intention for change and appealing afresh to the voters, particularly in areas where the party has not managed to make a dent or could be facing new challenges.

Delhi represents the electoral challenge: Denoting the latter situation could be the political picture in the national capital territory of Delhi where the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) alliance with the Indian National Congress (INC) is likely to emerge as a major challenge for the BJP. Interestingly, the BJP had gained 56.56 per cent of the vote share and grabbed all 7 seats, in Delhi in 2019 thus getting more vote share than the 22.51 per cent of the INC and 18.11 of the AAP combined. Yet, considering that the BJP has not been able to convert this acceptability in the last few assembly elections in Delhi, which has come just months after the respective Lok Sabha elections, represented the fear factor that seemingly disturbs the leadership.

For, the voting trends in Delhi of last decade show clear and distinctive choices being exercised by the electorate – a huge mandate in favour of the BJP in the Lok Sabha elections and massively favouring the AAP in the assembly polls. While the BJP leadership could have expected an encore in 2024 the way it had happened in 2014 and 2019, the mere thought that the AAP and INC cadre would work in unison in Delhi was enough to initiate sweeping changes in the candidate list.

In retaining only Manoj Tiwari in North East Delhi and replacing all other sitting MPs with new faces, the BJP leadership might have wanted to cater to different constituencies including youth, the trading community and social groups while also addressing impulses of change and performance perceptions. By not declaring candidates to replace Hans Raj Hans in North West Delhi and Gautam Gambhir, the leadership might be testing the waters to see how the change in candidatures has been received on the ground.

Though no major rebellion is expected against the choices of the Modi-Shah-Nadda leadership troika, there have been some murmurs which, though, may not cause any stir among the cadre. Harshvardhan, for example, has announced his decision to exit from active politics after being denied a renomination. Gambhir, for his part, expressed his disinclination to contest hours before the list was out though reports indicated that he was a preferred candidate for multiple constituencies, including outside Delhi.

That Parvesh Verma and Ramesh Bidhuri, members with a history of causing controversies both inside and outside the Parliament, were replaced with nominees from their own communities, may have tongues wagging. However, the possibility of both returning in the Delhi assembly elections next year, in prominent roles. cannot be ruled out. The exit of Meenakshi Lekhi, who was much visible as a union minister, from the high-profile New Delhi constituency comes as a surprise though the nomination of the late Sushma Swaraj’s daughter might be a shrewd move to attract many young voters.

As for Hans Raj Hans, who was barely active in the political scene, the BJP will be keen to find a more visible Dalit face in order to tide over the challenge from the expectant Congress candidate. While AAP has already hit the ground having declared its candidates for Delhi seats, the Congress, as has been its wont, is yet to pick the momentum on the candidate selections.

Will the South remain barren for the BJP?

The BJP’s first list covers only two southern states – Kerala and Telangana whereas its biggest stakes are in Karnataka where the party has been in power and recently voted out. It is reported that the BJP could be offering 3-5 seats for the JDS out of the 28, as opposed to the 7 seats it contested in alliance with the INC in 2019 and won just one. Having won 25 seats in 2019, the BJP has a clear upper hand though the likelihood of giving greater leeway to JDS in the light of potential cadre revolt is also not being ruled out. 

BJP’s position in Tamil Nadu, like in adjoining Kerala, refuses to improve despite numerous political realignments being attempted in recent years. The party drew a cropper in the five seats it contested in 2019 as part of the AIADMK-led alliance. The alliance fell apart in September 2023 supposedly over some controversial remarks made by the state BJP chief.

A revival of the alliance, however, is not ruled out by political observers, even as the BJP tries to cobble up an alliance of its own in Tamil Nadu. Bets are also placed on the possibility of Modi himself contesting from Tamil Nadu, as a second seat besides Varanasi, in order to propel the party’s prospects in the southern region.  

The scenario is not much different in Andhra Pradesh where the party has repeatedly failed to make an impact unlike the inroads made into Telangana. While the alliance with the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) had fallen apart during Modi’s first tenure itself, the BJP contested alone in all 25 seats in 2019 and drew a blank, like the INC. The TDP also, hit by anti-incumbency, was reduced to 3 seats with the YSRCP sweeping the remaining 22. The prospects of TDP’s return to the NDA are now almost certain with seat-sharing talks reported to be at an advanced stage.

Miscalculations in God’s own country: Kerala, on the other hand, looks far distant from the BJP’s victory lap even in the current scenario. Despite huge political investments and PM Modi, himself, leading the charge in the state in recent months, the list of candidates announced in Kerala shows the party has little to hope in terms of an exemplary performance in 2024. The party had in recent years weighed its prospects in a handful of seats like Thiruvananthapuram, Thrissur, Pathanamthitta and Kasargod.

After major political thrusts in traditional strongholds like Kasargod, after Modi came to power and spreading its sway to constituencies like Thiruvananthapuram and Palakkad, the BJP seems to be shying from a strong contest in these areas as is evident from the candidate choices in some of the vital constituencies.

While the party has fielded the Manjeshwaram Block Panchayat member, M.L. Ashwini in Kasargod, the Minister of State for IT and Skill Development, Rajeev Chandrasekhar, is the reluctant candidate in Thiruvananthapuram to take on three-time winner, Sashi Tharoor. Suffice it to point out that though Ashwini may still make an impact thanks to her local roots, Chandrasekhar reportedly had to contend with Thiruvananthapuram after being denied his choice of a seat in Bangalore. 

The choice of Anil Antony, son of Congress veteran A.K. Antony, for Pathanamthitta also is puzzling as the seat was sought by P.C. George, a Kerala Congress veteran who recently joined the BJP. Whereas the BJP could have considered Anil Antony in Ernakulam, with its urban vote base, the party also erred by handing over Kottayam to its ally, BDJS, when George could have been a strong contender in the seat with considerable Christian votes.

In the current situation, the BJP leadership seems to be placing its bets only on two seats – Thrissur, where movie star Suresh Gopi has been making inroads, and Attingal, where Union Minister of State for External Affairs, V Muraleedharan is assumed to have sufficient clout. While Gopi’s performance in Thrissur may still fall short of required numbers in a constituency with significant Christian votes, Muraleedharan’s expectant clout in Attingal may turn out to be a misnomer, especially because the Left candidate, V. Joy, who is also the CPI(M) Thiruvananthapuram district secretary, is a deeply entrenched local leader with a fan following since his days in student politics.

Going by these trends, the BJP may considerably increase its vote share in the state while a parliamentary debut might still prove evasive. This could come as a disappointment as the BJP central leadership had considerably invested in the state, with senior leader Prakash Javedekar being in charge for the last few years, and the Prime Minister himself making numerous attempts to woo the voters through road shows and regular visits.

Pan-Indian strategies

The first list could be an insight into how the BJP’s top honchos think in terms of political strategy and candidate choices. While the leadership found a place for its sole Muslim candidate in the first list, ironically from Kerala’s Malappuram, in the form of educationist Dr Abdul Salam, the party also positioned Hindutva hardliner Dr Kompella Madhavi Latha, known for her activism against triple talaq and madrassas, to take on AIMIM’s Asaduddin Owaisi in Hyderabad. 

The BJP’s plan for West Bengal also comes into question where candidates for only half of the seats have been listed. Several of the sitting MPs have retained their positions in the list of 20 even as newcomers like BJP’s assembly leader, Suvendu Adhikari’s brother, Soumendu Adhikari, figure in the list along with Dr Anirban Ganguly, head of the party’s Delhi-based think tank Dr Syamaprasad Mookerjee Research Foundation, nominated for Jadavpur. The fate of the likes of Dilip Ghosh, S.S. Ahluwalia and John Barla, who was replaced in Alipurduars, are unknown as much as seats like Darjeeling, once held by Jaswant Singh.

Interestingly, the party received a jolt when Bhojpuri singer Pawan Singh withdrew from the Asansol seat where he was supposed to fill in the void left by Babul Supriyo, who had earlier defected to TMC.

The first list omits eleven more sitting seats held by BJP in Uttar Pradesh and eighteen others from the total tally some of which may be granted to allies like the Apna Dal and new entrant, Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD). The fate of the eleven pending sitting seats, however, is subject to speculation. These include Ghaziabad held by former Army chief, General V.K. Singh who represented the constituency twice and was minister of state on both occasions; Sultanpur, represented by Maneka Gandhi; Pilibhit held by Varun Gandhi, who has of late been a vocal critic of the Modi government on many issues; as well as Baghpat, where former Mumbai police commissioner, Satyapal Singh, is the sitting MP.

Baghpat, interestingly is the bastion of RLD though Satypal Singh had defeated the late RLD supremo Ajit Singh as well as his son, Chaudhury, in 2014 and 2019 respectively. BJP will likely hand over the constituency to RLD implying that the former cop might be shifted to another seat or could find political rehabilitation in other forms.

Choices for for crucial seats like Rae Bareli, vacated by Sonia Gandhi and likely to be replaced by Priyanka Gandhi or Rahul Gandhi, are also kept aside seemingly anticipating decisions from the INC.  

In the list for Madhya Pradesh, former Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan will attempt a return to Lok Sabha from Vidisha which he served as a member of parliament from 1991 to 2005 as successor to none other than Atal Bihar Vajpayee. However, the notable omission in the Madhya Pradesh list is Sadhvi Pragya Thakur, whose controversial statement on Nathuram Godse in 2019 had ruffled the feathers of even the top BJP leadership.  

Even in the list for Rajasthan, 7 of the fifteen are new faces while in Chhattisgarh, only two sitting candidates have been retained in the released. In both states, some sitting members of parliament had contested and shifted to the assemblies in the 2023 state elections.  

More surprises could be in store when the BJP releases its second list, particularly in states like Maharashtra where the political future of senior leaders like Nitin Gadkari, Narayan Rane, and so on, will be known. Prospects of veterans like Amarinder Singh in Punjab and questions on whether state president Annamalai will contest in Tamil Nadu could also be answered in the upcoming lists.

The political future of ‘minority’ leaders like Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi, Shahnawaz Hussain and Alphons Kannanthanam (Alphons K J), who had a long association with the BJP as opposed to later-day converts, also hangs in the balance as they seem to have received the cold shoulder in Modi’s scheme of things.