In Thiruvananthapuram’s Manvila, just a stone throw away from The Polity’s home base, the loud speaker from a Bharatiya Janata Party’s campaign vehicle, during the local bodies poll in December last year, was blurting out a compelling message to the nearby localities: that the area has been hit by a water crisis, which, the announcer blamed on the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF), at that point, also ruling the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation (the BJP grabbed the Corporation in a historic win).

As the vehicle passed by, rippling across this message, an employee of the Kerala Water Authority (KWA), the nodal water supply agency, standing nearby, dismissed this statement with a smirk. The state government has been under pressure from the central government to privatise the water supply network of KWA in Thiruvananthapuram and other cities in the state in order to get funds under the Atal Jal Yogana, he claimed.  

It is peculiar that the LDF government or the Communist party leaders are not making this public, the KWA employee, who is affiliated with the Congress-aligned INTUC employees union in his organisation, lamented. Pressed further by The Polity, he stated that this was the result of the Andhardhara – synonym for the ‘secret deal’ alleged between the ruling Communist Party of India (Marxist) or CPM and the BJP.

Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan (left), Leader of Opposition V.D. Satheesan (centre), and BJP state chief Rajeev Chandrasekhar (right) 

As the voters of Kerala heads to the polling booths on April 9th, in a crucial election that would be historic if the state’s Chief minister, Pinarayi Vijayan, manages to win a third term, the most discerning undercurrent of this election is whether the CPM has indeed made a ‘deal’ with the BJP to transfer votes to enable the LDF’s return to power.

The alleged quid-pro-quo involves the LDF nominating ‘weak’ or ‘unwinnable’ candidates in 'some' seats where the Lotus is likely to bloom again. This could be unlike the sole seat of Nemom in 2016, but a handful of constituencies across the state, which have a sizeable BJP support base.

Winning even between 2-5 seats, as predicted in many opinion polls, could help the BJP’s grand standing in a state where it had struggled for decades to make itself politically relevant.

While CM Vijayan and the Left Front leaders have pooh-poohed these claims as a Goebbelsian strategy of the Congress to repeat a lie many times to make it sound like a truth, the electoral line-up in the Palakkad assembly constituency, straddling the Western Ghats, seems to be telling a peculiar story.

In the race are Ramesh Pisharody, a well-known comedian and film personality, as the Congress candidate, and Sobha Surendran, a firebrand BJP leader and the party’s most prominent woman face in the state.

The LDF chose a local hotelier, N.M.R Razak, as an independent. As in the case of the December 2024 bye-poll, when Rahul Mamkootathil – later suspended for multiple sexual offence charges – defeated P. Sarin, a Congress member who crossed over to become the CPM-backed candidate, Razak is also alleged to have past ties to Congress.  

The Congress alleged that a ‘weak’ non-party candidate was put up by the CPM as a quid pro quo to favour the BJP candidate in return for similar favours elsewhere.

Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi, addressing a rally (left), and CM Pinarayi Vijayan addressing a late evening election meeting (right)

Interestingly, several seats in Ernakulam district, where the BJP had a decent voter base, like Trikkakara and Thripunithara, were handed over by the BJP to Twenty-Twenty, a local political outfit started by industrialist Sabu Jacob, after his party joined the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), a few weeks before the election. Jacob nominated movie actresses in at least three of these seats, much to the chagrin of even the local BJP leaders, and reinforcing the ‘deal’ allegation.

Speaking to The Polity, Secretary of the Communist Party of India (CPI) Alappuzha District Council, and former Member of Parliament from the district, T.J. Anjalose, outrightly dismissed these allegations. “In the context of Kerala, the Left cannot take such a stance. Secularism is what drives the Left forward. Therefore, there is absolutely no adjustment or alliance in even a single seat. That is not a path the Left takes in Kerala.”

When The Polity pointed out the dominant public discussion on the Left’s supposedly weakened resistance against the BJP, which is feverishly expanding in the state, Anjalose countered that only because the LDF is fighting the Sangh Parivar with all its might has the BJP-led Central Government been stifling Kerala, a proof of their political vendetta against the Left.

“Kerala is moving forward by overcoming this. Secularism is the Left’s priority, so there is no understanding or adjustment at any level,” Anjalose asserted, also insisting that LDF will go on to repeat its 2021 performance by winning over 100 seats. “Last time we got 99 seats. We will be able to maintain that strength, and our assessment is that we will also win back some seats that we lost by small margins last time. So, we expect a good performance in all districts.

Not everyone, even from within the Left circles, shared this sentiment. In fact, most voices The Polity talked to were unanimous in identifying a dominant anti-incumbency wave prevalent across the state, mostly targeted at the Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan’s style of functioning.

Joseph C. Mathew, who was Information Technology Advisor to Chief Minister V.S. Achuthanandan and was unceremoniously removed from the post, had over the years turned into a bitter critic of Vijayan and was unequivocal that anti-incumbency is at a heightened pitch.

Since the UDF does not have a cadre-centric organisational structure in Kerala, it is this widespread resentment amongst the population versus the organisational heft of LDF that is on contest this election, feels Mathew. “People are looking for winnability to decide, as in the three-tier polls,” he remarked to The Polity.

Anjalose, for this part, rejected even an air of anti-incumbency in Kerala. Instead, he feels, it is currently an ‘anti-opposition’ sentiment that is felt across the state. “People are well aware of the work that has been done. While a small percentage of neutral voters usually shifting sides causes a change in government, right now, those people seem very satisfied with the current administration. It is quite evident,” Anjalose insisted.

A reason for this confidence, political analysts point out, was reports of sitting LDF MLAs enjoying popular support and that their performances were seen as satisfactory. While the CPM and CPI, as the leading LDF parties, decided to retain all their sitting MLAs and ministers, the opinion polls from various television channels in the state are also predicting a close race as opposed to an anti-incumbency wave predicted from many quarters.

Mathew contests this claim, stating that this is a myth being propagated and that all claimed achievements are centred on the usage of MLA Development Funds, which is showcased as an achievement of the legislators. Arguing that most governmental activity is projected as the party’s performance, Mathew narrates the case of the KIFBI (Kerala Infrastructure Investment Fund Board), which ran into many controversies over its funding sources.

KIBFI, according to their own audit, has spent only INR 38,000 crores till January 2026, with INR 30,000 being granted from the Consolidated Fund of Kerala. The Board, on the other hand, is facing a debt of INR19,000 crore, which will have to be serviced by the next government, Mathew warns. 

Mathew also laments that the UDF could not sustain a proper campaign to highlight the failings of the Pinarayi government, especially in the health and education sectors, which were hallmarks of the Communist parties of previous eras.

CM Pinarayi Vijayan greeted by women supporters (left), and the CM with his son-in-law and PWD minister P.A. Mohamed Riyaz and RJD leader Tejaswi Yadav, whose party is a LDF constituent (right)

A senior journalist in Thiruvananthapuram, known as Left-leaning, but did not want to be identified, exclaimed that the party is in ideological decay, with the atrophy being deep-rooted. Though he does not expect a Bengal-like situation if LDF loses power, he feels that the CPM has now become a slave to parliamentarianism.  

Some party veterans who spoke to The Polity, and wanted to remain anonymous, confessed that the party is at a crossroads and that the consequences of losing power in the last bastion will have major implications. Yet, many of them echoed their support of Pinarayi Vijayan, stating that his leadership had steered the party to withstand the massive transformation in Indian politics of the last few decades.

The UDF camp: Buoyant but cautious  

The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), for its part, is immensely confident of returning to power after over a decade in the opposition. Notwithstanding many television surveys predicting a close race, which they attributed to the huge funding LDF and BJP provided in the name of advertisements, the UDF camp confidently predicts 80-90 seats to come in its favour and possibly even above 100, if the expected wave is to translate into a landslide.

However, it is this question of the ‘silent wave,’ whose impressions are not spontaneously seen, that is making the UDF leaders cautious. A former District Congress Committee (DCC) President in Thiruvananthapuram told The Polity, without wishing to be named, that the wave was already seen in the local bodies’ election a few months earlier, with an unmistakable mandate.

However, with the BJP also putting up a spectacular show in that election, not many UDF leaders are ready to predict a 100+ landslide. Leaders in Malabar, on the other hand, expect a remarkable UDF comeback in this northern region of the state, including in traditional CPM bastions like Kannur, Kozhikode and Kasargod. Though surveys predict a close race in these districts, Congress leaders predict a massive mandate to emerge in these districts against the LDF.

Rahul Gandhi bikes with Chandy Oommen, sitting MLA from Puthupally and former Chief Minister Oommen Chandy's son (left) in a iconic picture by now as the latter shunned posters in favour of this direct mode of campaigning; Rahul Gandhi with AICC Organisation Secretary K.C. Venugopal and Praveen Kumar, Kozhikode DCC chief and candidate for Koyilandi (right)

While the UDF leadership expects to retain its traditional hold over central Kerala and districts like Idukki and Pathanamthitta, they are still unable to predict the outcome in the southern districts, including Alappuzha, Kollam and Thiruvananthapuram.

In Thiruvananthapuram, where the BJP has already swept to power in the Corporation, the saffron party is said to be having the edge in at least two seats – Kazhakuttom and Nemom, with a strong race expected in Vattiyoorkavu.

While the Congress expects to win the rural constituencies in the district, the party keeps high hopes on veteran leader K Muraleedharan wresting back Vattiyoorkavu from the CPM. The politically crucial Thiruvananthapuram Central has its ally, C.P. John of Communist Marxist Party (CMP), fighting to wrest back the seat from LDF with BJP having a strong base. Similarly, former MLA and current Corporation councillor K Sabarinath is giving a tough race to both BJP and CPM in Nemom.

In Kollam, the stakes are evenly placed with the Congress trying to take back Kottarakara by fielding a former CPM veteran, Ayesha Potti, against her former party colleague and Finance Minister K.N. Balagopal. In adjoining Pathanapuram, the high-profile transport minister and actor K Ganesh Kumar, who till recently seemed to be invincible, is sitting pretty following the controversy involving his marital dispute that caught the state by surprise days before the poll was announced.

Alappuzha continues to be unpredictable despite the UDF making deft political moves like roping in CPM veteran G. Sudhakaran to contest from Ambalapuzha against his erstwhile party colleague, H Salaam. With the political atmosphere intensifying into an acerbic war of words in this district, the UDF camp keeps its hope on traditional Christian-dominated areas like Kuttanad and areas bordering the Kottayam and Pathanamthitta districts to shape the outcome in this district.

However, beyond these electoral calculations, there are other concerns that trouble the party cadre. A youth congress leader who spoke to The Polity, on condition of anonymity, expressed apprehensions over the impending leadership race. Assuming the UDF comes to power with a substantial victory, the days and weeks from May 4th will see much troubling action in the state capital, thanks to the challenging question of who will lead the new government.

The VD versus RC versus KC debate is still raging in the party, implying whether it will be V.D. Satheesan, the current Leader of Opposition, Ramesh Chennithala, his predecessor in that position, or K.C. Venugopal, Member of Parliament and AICC Organisation Secretary, who will be chosen as the Chief Minister. In the run-up to the voting day, there has been much backroom manoeuvring over this question.

The CM hopefuls: Ramesh Chennithala with former KPCC president V.M. Sudheeran (left), K.C. Venugopal with Chandy Oommen (centre), and V.D Satheesan (right)

While Satheesan remains the popular choice, having revived the party from a disgraceful position of 2021, leading the party to victory in all subsequent bye-polls, and effectively spearheading the ongoing campaign, the heft of the other two veterans is what is worrying the party cadre.

Though Satheesan effectively negated the possibility of Venugopal being in the race by strongly opposing sitting Members of Parliament contesting in the assembly election, it is a well-known fact that Chennithala is mobilising the old guard in the party to gain the top chair.

Party insiders point to the precedents of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and even Karnataka, where the Congress high command had, at the last moment, ditched the younger leaders to crown the party veterans in chief minister positions. Many expect a repeat of the same in Kerala, too.  

For the BJP, it’s a long-term bet

For the BJP and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), this is a significant election. From expecting the lotus to bloom again, not just in one but a handful of constituencies, the party is betting on its grand standing with notable performances across the state.

With the central leadership of the party in full flow – the PM having addressed multiple rallies across the state – the party is investing heavily in the campaign, clearing marching over the other two fronts in terms of posters, campaign vehicles and huge rallies. While opinion polls have predicted between two and five seats where the BJP’s winnability is on a strong footing, party insiders predict its victory in at least three seats – Kazhakuttom, Manjeswaram and Nemom.

PM Modi at a election rally in Kozhikode (left) and during a road show in Thrissur (right)

In Kazhakuttom, former Union Minister V. Muraleedharan, who came second in the 2016 election, is taking on sitting MLA Kadakampally Surendran and veteran Congress leader Sarath Chandra Prasad. With party councillors sweeping most of the Corporation wards in this constituency last December, and Rajeev Chandrasekhar also emerging with the highest votes in this constituency in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the BJP is expecting to romp home.

Nemom, where BJP opened its account in 2016, but lost in 2021, is expecting a strong fight with state president Rajeev Chandrasekhar taking on sitting MLA and education minister V. Sivankutty. With Congress fielding former MLA K Sabarinath, a three-corner race is making the fight tougher, though BJP circles expect Chandrasekhar to wrest back the seat.

In Manjeswaram, the BJP has fielded former party president K Surendran, who lost the seat by a mere 35 votes in the 2016 election. Though not repeating the feat in 2021, many political analysts expect Surendran to better the performance this time around.

Palakkad was yet another hopeful seat with Sobha Surendran emerging as a favourite in the initial rounds, but only to find a tough challenge in Pisharody, who has managed to woo various sections with his political deft and poise. In the final hours before voting day, Surendran was hit with a voter bribery charge, which seems to have dented her chances as well.

Whether it is two or five seats, the BJP is clearly digging its heels in for the long haul. The party has made significant bets in the Christian belt by fielding prominent faces like P.C. George and his son Shone George in seats like Poonjar and Pala The party continues to pay prominent focus in seats like Aranmula and Ranni, where the Sabarimala issue – from women’s entry, protection of devotee rights to recent gold theft cases – continue to reverberate in the public debates.

A reentry into the Kerala assembly, even in smaller numbers, BJP leaders feel, will pave the way for the party to come to power through better performances in the future elections.

The BJP has found high number of women supporters over the past decade in Kerala (left and centre), and so too for its cultural symbols (right)

Kerala politics at a crossroads

The polling on April 9th, with the verdict on May 4th, will have immense implications for Kerala’s political parties. For the CPM and the CPI, it is a do-or-die situation as the fall of the ‘last bastion’ will raise a question mark on the future of mainstream Communist politics in the country.

Without being in power in any Indian state, questions will be asked of not just the political future of the Communist parties, but whether its brand of socialism has lost relevance in Indian politics. Though few expect the party to decay into the level seen in West Bengal, where it was in power for three decades, losing power will mean the party having to transition to a new generation of leadership.

At the Madurai Party Congress last year, the Party had already initiated this transition by bringing in promising young leaders to the Polit Bureau while retiring all the veterans other than Pinarayi Vijayan, who, at 80, remains the Communist patriarch.

A victory will mean Vijayan continuing to hold that position and possibly spearhead the party’s revival at the national level, especially if he decides to initiate a leadership transition during the third term, which remains hypothetical at this moment.

For the Congress, a failure to win will not just be a setback for its Kerala leadership, including Satheesan and Chennithala, but also for Rahul Gandhi, who campaigned extensively in the state. More importantly, losing Kerala again will reflect upon Gandhi’s inability to win state elections despite emerging as a powerful face in national politics.

A race that will be keenly watched: posters of the candidates in Ambalapuzha, where CPM veteran G Sudhakaran is taking on his erstwhile party colleague

For the people of Kerala, it is about continuity or change, or a newfound liking for a brand of politics that they have not hitherto experienced much – the Modi juggernaut and Hindutva brand of politics. Already, in response to Kerala BJP’s promise of a ‘Vikasit Keralam,’ the not-so-savoury images of northern India are beamed around by UDF and LDF trollers telling what that ‘Vikasit’ story would be.

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