Americans are lining up to vote for the 2024 presidential polls with its outcome having the potential to determine the future course of the world’s oldest and largest (by size) democracy. All surveys predict a very close race between Republican stalwart and former president Donald Trump and the incumbent vice president and Democrat nominee, Kamala Harris. As the world eagerly awaits the outcome, the eventual victor and margin of victory will significantly influence the next presidency. Professor Chintamani Mahapatra, who has closely studied American politics of last many decades, provides this ringside view.
The 2024 American presidential election is unique in someways and its outcome will surely create history of some kind. For the second time, one of the candidates, Donald Trump, a former president, is a convicted felon. A century ago, Eugene Debs, a socialist leader and activist, had ran for the presidency from the prison and was known to have got about a million votes.
But this time, Donald Trump is running neck to neck in the opinion polls with Democratic nominee Kamala Harris and many predict that he may even win the presidential race.
Kamala Harris is the third women to be a candidate in the US presidential race, first being Victoria Woodhull in 1872, second was Hillary Clinton in 1916 and now Kamala Harris.
There have been several African American men and women who were presidential aspirants, but the most notable was President Barack Obama as the first president of that community and Kamala Harris is the first African American Vice President and first nominee for the presidential contest of a major political party. Moreover, Kamala Harris has Indian blood and if she wins the election, she will be the first president with Indian ancestry to occupy the Oval Office in the US White House.
What is unique about the 2024 presidential contest is the fact that after the election, either the next president of the US will have partial Indian ancestry or the second Lady, wife of a Vice President, will be a person of Indian ancestry. Usha Chilukuri Vance is the wife of Vice-Presidential running mate of Donald Trump, JD Vance.
Hence, no matter who wins the 2024 presidential election, there will be one person with Indian ancestry who will be in the next US Administration!
There are many questions in the minds of people about what happens to Trump]’s conviction in the criminal cases if and after he wins the election. Similarly, many people ask whether the American citizens are ready for a women president that too one with a mixed Jamaican and Indian ancestry.
Age was a major issue during the campaign when President Joe Biden was the nominee of the Democratic Party. Donald Trump often made fun of the Joe Biden’s age, health and his mental capability to run the presidency. When Joe Biden stepped down and Kamala Harris was nominated for the presidential contest, age no longer remained an issue.
Instead, Kamala Harris began raking up Donald Trump’s mental fitness to run the administration. She often quotes top aides of Donald Trump during his presidency who have openly stated that Trump is not suitable to be the Commander-in-Chief of the US military.
Moreover, Kamala has made public her health report, while challenging Trump to do so, but in vain. While the first debate between Trump and Kamala made it amply clear to all that Kamala is more coherent, articulate and knowledgeable. Trump, for his part, emerged disorganized, babbling (which, he claims to be a masterful ‘weave’) and unable to explain his policies in clearer terms.
Yet, the opinion polls indicate that his support base remains consistently strong and loyal.
On key issues during the campaign spanning several months, Trump and Kamala have dissimilar positions notwithstanding their compromising positions with an eye on the election.
Abortion is a downright polarizing issue with Kamala championing the cause of women’s sovereign rights over their bodies. Trump, appealing to the evangelists and Christian groups, professes a pro-life stand that supports legal restrictions on women’s right to abortion.
Immigration is another headline debating point where Trump is too harsh on immigrants and attacks Kamala Harris for failing to stem illegal immigrants into the country. On health policy, Trump’s opposition to Affordable Care Act, which is also known as the Obama Care, is well known. Kamala, on the other hand, wants to sustain this policy that has enabled millions of Americans to acquire health insurance at affordable prices.
On the major issue of the economy, especially employment and inflation and, of course, taxation policy, Trump’s conservatism promotes capitalist ideas and Kamala’s position is sympathetic towards the middle and lower middle classes. No wonder Trump brands Kamala as a left radical while Kamala exposes Trump as a billionaire who would back Corporate America.
On key foreign policy issues, both the candidates have dissimilar approaches too.
On the issue of Israel’s wars in West Asia, Kamala supports an early ceasefire, avoidance of civilian casualties and a two-state solution to Palestine-Israel dispute. Of course, she would ensure Israel’s security and for combating terrorism. Trump, on the other hand, would fully back Netanyahu government and its policies.
On the war in Ukraine, Trump would like to end the war, not keep funding billions to Ukraine and striking a deal with Russian president Vladimir Putin to resolve the differences, if possible, before his inauguration after winning the election. Kamala is all for backing Ukraine until the existential war end with the victory of the Western values and liberal order.
All these policy issues are fine for debate and discussion and academic analysis. The political realities are different and more complex in the United States. Religion, race, gender, ethnicity, and class are all going to play a role in shaping popular perception and voting behaviors.
The Christian Right and Evangelicals are most likely to vote for Trump. Women in large numbers appear to be voting in large numbers for Kamala Harris in view of their rights to abortion in danger. Arab Americans are expected to back Kamala Harris, even as the war in West Asia sees no end of it in the near future. African Americans and Asian Americans are also likely to vote for the Democratic Party.
Even then, such generalizations have limits.
The mainstream print and visual media certainly do their normal activities of reporting, analyzing campaign issues and also taking strong political positions as well. The Trump Administration alleges the liberal media to be giving pass to Kamala Harris, while nitpicking his statements and making critical observations. But the Conservative media is with Donald Trump underreporting his strong views or insulting statements. Only Jeff Bezos publicly announced that Washington Post, which he owns, will not endorse any presidential candidate – an announcement which led to considerable debate within the American press corps.
What is significant is, however, the role of the social media. The Republican Party and the Democratic Party are campaigning through social media to secure and expand their expanding respective constituencies.
Thus, it is important to underline that voters in large number of states have already made up their minds about whom to votes.
There are RED States that will vote for the Republican Party and BLUE States that will vote for the Democratic Party. Out of 50 States in the American Federation and the District of Columbia, voters in about seven states, also known as battleground states or swing states, who will determine the electoral fate of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
The election system in the United States is unique process with its advantages and difficulties.
People vote in the election, but do not choose the president directly. It is the Electoral College that decides the election outcome. Big and populated states have more electoral seats and play larger role in the election results.
Significantly, there are 538 electoral college seats. But less than 100 electoral votes from the swing states, such as Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will play the key role of electing the next president of the United States.
The American system also allows for early voting, with over 55 million already casting their vote by 30 October 2024. Though 5th November will be the final voting day, closing hours vary for different states owing to the multiple time zones that divide the country.
Results could be expected in the late hours of election days, provided one of the candidates has a clean sweep or wave in his or her favour. However, in the event of close margins and likely disputes, the counting and announcement could spill over to 6th November and further. In fact, Associated Press declared Biden as winner only by 11.30 (Eastern Time) on 7th November.
The counting process will be eagerly watched, with both anticipation and trepidation, particularly since MAGA (Make America Great Again) supporters of Donald Trump has indicated rejection of polls if he loses or if Harris wins with a slender margin. Though a repeat of the siege over the Capitol Hill of 6th January 2021 is not widely anticipated, there is considerable debate on whether Trump will seek to overturn the mandate and incite political tumult in the country or whether 2024 presidential elections in the US will culminate as a peaceful and credible political exercise.
