Many Indian-Americans who made it big in Silicon Valley could have been in visa queues outside American consulates across India in the 1990s, coinciding with India’s early liberalization period and also marking the period when the biggest waves of immigration started towards the US and the West.

Incidentally, India-US relations were at its lowest ebb in the 1990s: India’s space and missile programmes were targeted with instruments like the Entities List and Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR); both countries were on a path of confrontation in international forums on issues ranging from trade tariffs, protectionism, non-proliferation and much more; the US had a pro-Pakistan tilt besides failing to take decisive steps against the terror scourge that India was facing for its western neighbour for over two decades while targetting India on the ‘Kashmir dispute’ .   

It is in spite of this “estranged relationship” that thousands of educated Indians flocked to the US for education and jobs, or to pursue the American dream, even as the US welcomed Indian talent and brains to its lucrative and flourishing eco-system. Though the estrangement prevailed as an off-shoot of Cold War era politics, Indians were always glued to the American way of life and its politics thanks to the wide pervasion of Hollywood movies that permeated the American ‘soft power’ across the globe.

Cut to the twenty-first century, and it is a different world order in which India and the US are strategic partners, and, more importantly, Indians, like in many parts of the developed world, play a significant role in the American way of life, including its politics and economy. While India and the world have already woken up to the reality of people of Indian origin rising to the top of the political echelons in countries like Ireland and the United Kingdom (UK), the political Indian had much earlier made his/her imprint in American politics through the likes of Bobby Jindal, Nikki Haley, Nisha Desai Biswas, Sri Srinivasan, Richard Verma, Swadesh Chatherjee, Mannan Trivedi, Raja Krishnamoorti, Tulsi Gabbard, and many more.

Kamala Harris was not the last on that list but had already made her presence felt as District Attorney of San Francisco by as early as 2004 and rose to the national scene as Attorney General of California in 2011. For some of us who were already aware of Kamala’s Indian roots, having been colleagues with her maternal uncle, Gopalan Balachandran, at a premier research institution in Delhi, it was evident then itself that Harris was destined to rise to the top in American politics.

As US President Joseph Biden exits the American presidential race after endorsing his Vice President Kamala Harris as the presumptive presidential candidate for the Democrats, it is the culmination of a journey that was predicted more than a decade ago but seems to have been derailed by the complex turn in American politics in recent years.

With Kamal Harris now set to be only the second 'person of colour' to be nominated for the US presidential ticket, and the first person with African-American and Indian-American roots to rise to this position, the chances of Harris making it to the White House, however, have become more arduous and implausible, if not bleaker, than ever thanks to deep-rooted schisms in the American democratic ethos. Nothing embodies this better than the Republican nominee and former President, Donald Trump’s first reaction to Harris's candidature: “VP Harris will be easier to defeat than Biden.”

A divided nation and its democracy in tatters

While 22nd July will be marked as a momentous Sunday in which a serving US president and presumptive candidate for renomination had to quit over calls of ageing and incoherence, it could also be remembered for being the day when an incumbent vice president was catapulted to the presidential race after being told for months that she may not be good enough to take on the arch-rival from the Republican camp.

Harris’s chances were foreclosed as early as during the midcourse of Biden's presidency when the President had profoundly indicated that he would recontest in 2024, and in those initial moments, refused to even confirm whether Harris would be retained as his running mate in the second run. The decision upended an assumed understanding during the 2020 run that Biden would make way for Harris after the first tenure.

In fact, Trump and the Republicans had claimed during the 2020 campaign that Biden would be quitting midway during the first tenure and making way for Harris to take over as President. This claim resounded deeply with the far-right white voters who then felt that Biden was merely a stop-gap arrangement to facilitate the return of a ‘Black’ President to the White House.

Needless to say, Barack Obama’s two tenures as President witnessed a major resurgence of white supremacism in the country with his efforts for a “Post-Racial America” being riled by both sides. Neither could the Blacks find solace in a president from their side of the racial divide, with increasing instances of racial violence testing the Obama administration's ability to be bipartisan, nor could the mainstream or far-right, white supremacists find reconciliation with the history made by a black president.

Beyond the racial conflicts, the Obama Administration presiding over an industrial meltdown and losing out the economic impetus to China had greatly alienated the working class, particularly in the rural and industrial white-dominated areas, which saw it as the handiwork of the ‘deep state’ in Washington.

Despite his idiosyncrasies and uncouth public postures, Trump’s swift sweep over the white voter base, particularly in the rural and the Bible belt, was largely attributed to the resistance of rural and Christian America to the Washington lobbies, globalization policies and neo-liberals that were largely identified with the left-centre politics of the Democrats. Trump mainstreamed issues like anti-immigration, protectionism, Islamophobia, the primacy of white-Christian interests and every other cause that was not considered as ‘politically correct’ by the liberals and was for long swept under the carpet.

Yet, the biggest imprint and outcome of Trumpism is the extent to which a US president, right from the campaign trail, has revived far-right and white supremacist sentiments far beyond any Republican president could ever do since the time of the Ku Klux Klan.

While fractious race relations, targeting of the black population, Islamophobia and even a blockade against immigration from the South (America) were hallmarks of Trump’s four years at the White House, the extent of the damage Trumpism did to American democracy manifested itself only days after the election results in the first week of January 2021.

On 6th January 2021, claiming that the election was ‘stolen’, an unprecedented insurrection, unseen hitherto in post-independence American history, saw hordes of right-wingers and Trump supporters storm and ransack Capitol Hill. The objective was clearly to uproot the election verdict, stall the congressional process to ratify the election and entail a coup that could have made it difficult for Joe Biden to assume power.

If it was Trump’s own Vice President, Michael Pence, who spearheaded the defence of the Congress and the Constitution against the insurrection, subsequent investigations revealed the role of Trump and other Republican leaders in instigating the “invasion” of Capitol Hill. While the House of Representatives impeached Trump for his role in the insurrection, the only serving or former president to face two impeachments, Republican seniors managed to acquit Trump in the US Senate, thereby ensuring that Trump was not debarred from contesting again. Though a majority of senators, including seven Republicans, voted to convict Trump, they still failed to hit the required two-thirds majority needed to win the trial. 

It was this decision by Republicans, including known Trump critics like the minority leader in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, that had enabled Trump to return to the political mainstream, stay in the race and eventually gain the presidential ticket despite not even participating in the primaries, and yet come out as the formidable winner in almost all primaries.

The extent of Trump’s support base and the surge of support from the white population on the right and far-right spectrum was too unassailable for any other Republican leader or aspirant, including Nikki Haley, who treaded until the final stretch.

Will Kamala find the going tough?

That a former President who openly instigated people to riot, upturn an election result, questioned the credibility of elections in the world’s largest democracy, and underwent numerous criminal probes and legal prosecutions, including on ungraceful allegations like sexual abuse, has emerged as the natural front-runner for one formidable segment of the political spectrum is testament enough not just of a fractured polity but also one where essential democratic values seem to have deeply eroded and diminished in virtue and worth.

The close races that swung in favour of Biden in 2021, and the insurrection that followed, were indicators of how deeply and politically divided the American nation has been since the rise of Trumpism. However, the purported assassination attempt against a presidential candidate by a white boy in his early 20s, with no criminal record, embodies much deeper sectarian schisms and social cleavages in American society aggravated by the indomitable gun culture.

That the boy belonged to a majoritarian white community and was identified as a registered Republican raises more troubling questions about where the US is hurtling towards in the far-right and supremacist surges. Had the shooter been from a minority community or a 'person of colour,' the nature of political debate could have turned more vitriolic and hate-centric besides consolidating even undecided white voters in favour of Trumpism.

While major segments of liberals, the progressive left, blacks and other minority communities have intensely bickered with the Biden administration on everything from Gaza to Ukraine and the racial divisions, they are likely to invariably back Democratic presidential nominee to ensure that Trump is kept out. However, it is the rise of the alternative right (alt-right) and its influence on the larger white population, especially in rural and working-class belts in the battleground states, that concerns how the swings will go either way. 

A palpable reason why Biden declared midway through his second bid at the presidency could have been an attempt to mollify the white population and sound out in advance that a non-white candidate would not be in the reckoning for the White House. This strategy could have worked in Democrat’s favour during the congressional and state elections in November 2023. Yet, the fact that Trump has returned with resounding support from Republicans after orchestrating the worst of actions in the world’s largest democracy not just spells the irreparable damage done to the polity but also the limits to which the Biden-Harris binary could influence the populous.

For that matter, it is evident that the Biden-Harris leadership failed to provide the country with much-needed succour from its racial divides or convince the population swinging towards the right on the virtues of the ‘American dream’, the contributions of immigrants in nation-building, the benefits of a multi-cultural society and the need to remain integrated with the global economy with Americans being the foremost beneficiary of globalization.

Despite initial polls after Harris’s entry providing her a slight edge over Trump, her presidential outing could still be a tough one for the following reasons:

Late entrant and a lot of ground to cover: This would be the first time in US history that an incumbent president designated as the presumptive candidate for the party has quit the race at such a late hour and passed the mantle to an incumbent, and seemingly unprepared, vice-president to take his place. With the Democratic National Convention (DNC) just a month away (August 19-22) and just over 100 days left for voting day (November 5th), no presidential candidate could have had the going as tough as VP Kamala Harris.

Though the Democrats are well past the primaries, and no challenge is likely to emerge from within the party to Harris's ticket at the DNC, scepticism continues to prevail on whether Harris will manage to mobilise the party's cadre and support base effectively, including endorsements from across the Democratic spectrum, at this late hour. Questions are being raised on why former President Barack Obama and veterans like Bernie Sanders have not yet endorsed Harris and whether they are keen to see another competitor emerging at the Convention.

Kamala Harris’s choice of running mate, expectedly a white candidate, could also be a significant factor in determining the traction the VP could gain by the time of the Convention. 

There is no popular wave: Unlike in 2009 when Obama was destined to make history as the first black American president, no such momentum or mood for a historic electoral moment is currently brewing in favour of the first woman president, and a Black American at that. 

In 2009, a national anti-incumbency mood prevailed against Republicans following the great recession and economic crisis that hit the country in the final months of George W. Bush’s presidency. Currently, there is no sweeping wave in favour of any candidate, for that matter, even after the purported assassination attempt on Donald Trump. Polls even after the CNN presidential debate of June 27th have given only a 43-49 score difference in favour of Trump.

In such a scenario, much will depend on how both parties fare in swing states, namely Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and to some extent, Nevada and North Carolina, which are also considered battleground states. Most of the polls in these states in the last few weeks have given a clear edge to Trump over Biden, while reports suggest the scenario may change after Harris’s arrival. Other than her prospects in Michigan, if the state governor, Gretchen Whitmer, is anointed as Harris’s running mate, surveys placed Wisconsin and Pennsylvania as the only other swing states where Harris was likely to be scoring over Trump in the current scenario.

Hence, when the blue-red ratio spreads out after November 5th, the decisive factor will be on how VP Kamala Harris will consolidate not just the Democrat votes across the nation but also manage to carry along a considerable chunk of the swing votes. A Reuters Poll, taken hours after Biden handed over the mantle to Harris, showed the VP leading 44-42 against the former president, which is indication that Biden’s withdrawal has been widely accepted and that a consolidation in favour of Harris might happen across the anti-Trump vote bases.

The key question, then, will be whether this consolidation will be good enough or, instead, could fall short as in 2016 when Hillary Clinton lost the electoral college despite winning popular votes.     

Harris has yet to find her mojo: From her days as an attorney, first in the San Francisco district, Kamala Harris was recognized for her legal and political acumen and activism, and as a champion of many social causes including against drug abuse, violent crimes, opposing death penalty, initiative for recidivism reduction, rehabilitation and re-entry of convicts who completed terms into the society and so on. As Attorney General of California, she expanded into many causes including gay and transgender rights, reproduction rights, pushing for privacy policies and affirmative action, favouring environmental protection laws, introducing e-crime units and much more.

Her days as Senator of California were equally eventful, with her congressional performance being one major factor in clinching the deal to be Biden’s running mate in 2020. Harris was then touted as a sure-shot successor for Biden and destined to be not just the first woman president, and one of 'colour'.

As racial divisions continue to rage in the US, Harris was seen to have taken a backseat in the Biden administration without the visibility gained by many past vice presidents, be it Biden himself, Dick Cheney or even Al Gore, notwithstanding her prominent intervention on issues like health care and reproductive rights. In fact, Harris did not seem to even enjoy the clout that Hillary Clinton earned for herself as Secretary of State under the Obama Administration. While VPs are usually relegated into backroom roles, especially if the President has a domineering presence, Harris seems to have taken the cue from her immediate predecessor, Mike Pence, who too played a muted second fiddle to the President.

Much of this could also be attributed to the mid-course decision by President Biden to stand for re-election, which invariably, if not permanently, finished off Harris’s presidential dreams. For if Biden was to contest and win, it could have meant a second VP term for Harris unless Biden had chosen to quit midway through the presidency, as claimed by Trump in 2020. If Biden was destined to lose in 2024, it could have considerably diminished, if not foreclosed, Harris’s chances of throwing the gauntlet in the 2028 primaries. For, there could be many new contenders and aspirants who could emerge in 2028 with even Michelle Obama’s name doing the rounds among prospective candidates.   

Thus, Harris’s conspicuous absence from or negligible presence in the election scene until last week could have been the result of a sense of resignation on the woeful trajectory taken by her political career. While many felt that injustice was meted out to Harris in the way she was systematically sidelined, and could now rejoice in her sudden pitchforking to the Democrat ticket, it could only have been a fortuitous turn of events that the mantle returned to Harris after it seemed to be permanently snatched away from her reach.

Polls and other trends are now showing a swift and wide reception for Harris. Furthermore, Harris garnered a whopping 81 million dollars as donations within 24 hours of the presumptive nomination, which has galloped to over 230 million in a matter of days. This might be an indication that the Democrats are swiftly mobilizing behind the Harris ticket. To what extent this consolidation will favour Harris in the campaign, however, will largely be determined by the impact she makes on the battleground states where Trump currently seems to hold the edge. 

Besides the battleground states, Trump had gained a decisive advantage in terms of perception and also widespread sympathy after the purported assassination attempt. Whether Harris will be able to reverse these gains will drive the shape of the US presidential campaign in the days to come.