The elections for the European Union (EU) Parliament held during 6-9 June 2024 has caught global attention with the right wing and the extreme right parties performing well across Europe. What appears to be more striking is the shift in youth voting trends towards the Right. This is a sea change since the young voters were traditionally been left-wingers and had driven the wave of support for environmental parties at the previous EU election in 2019, earning the nickname “Generation Greta” after the young Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg.

In several European countries like Germany, Belgium, Austria, Greece and Malta, voting age was reduced to 16 allowing more young voters to take part in the EU election for the first time. The general opinion that it might help the Left and the Environmentalists was proven to be wrong as in Germany nearly 16 % (gain of 11%) of under-18 voters favoured the AfD, this time.

The Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) finished second in Germany, ahead of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD). The Social Democrats received only 13.9% of the vote, their lowest post-World War II performance. In France, the National Rally won 32% of the vote, more than double that of President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist allies – a crushing defeat that led Macron to call a snap parliamentary election. In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s party earned over 28% of the national vote, putting her at the centre of attention during the recently concluded G-7 Summit held in Italy.

Going by electoral mathematics, the rise of the Right and the far Right has been incremental rather than being overwhelming, though, unsettling all existing equations. Gulshan Sachdeva points out that while the right and far right political groups have increased their vote shares and seats at the expense of the Greens, Renew, and the Socialists, the pro-Europe progressive groups including the EPP, S&D, Renew, and Greens, however, have still managed to win more than 60% of seats.

These pro-EU parties, thus, will still command a majority in the next Parliament. The center-right European People’s Party (EPP), led by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, actually gained seats which allows her to continue as the largest bloc in the EU Parliament. Despite losing some ground, the centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) have remained the second-largest coalition.

Moreover, argues Philippe Legrain, former economic adviser to the European Commission president, far-right parties are deeply divided. They are split between two rival parliamentary groups, and some remain unattached to any political groupings. They disagree on major issues like the Ukraine war, economic policy, LGBTQ rights, and, crucially, whether to work within the EU system or against it.

Factors behind Europe’s right-turn

Though there are multiple factors responsible for the rising popularity of the right-wing groups, the economic situation across the region has had a central role in Europe’s far-right surge, opines  Filippa Chatzistavrou, professor of political science at the University of Athens. Chatzistavrou argues this is not the first time that Europe has witnessed a rise in the popularity of the far-right, but the current wave differs from previous ones in a particularly dangerous way. “That is the far-right constituency has expanded beyond just the working class and rural populations to include some upper classes and young people, posing new risks,” she said.

Many Europeans believe – incorrectly – that EU elections are inconsequential as the turnout is much lower than in national elections, and many people cast protest votes, often against governing parties. Real concerns, according to many analysts, are noticeable ideological shifts and questioning of the European integrationist order which had slowly evolved and nurtured and got strengthened during the post- Cold War decades.

Aversion towards right wing politics generated through the collective traumatized memories of European politics between 1920-1945, dominated by Fascism and Nazism, is also fading away with the rising number of youth and new generations, more concerned with current issues rather than what they see as calendrical events occurring nearly a hundred years ago.

“The EU, in its present form, is not representing the needs and interests of all its member states,” argued Valeria Giannotta, scientific director of Rome-based think tank CeSPI’s Observatory on Türkiye, “It is rather representing a small fraction, which is basically northern European countries. Therefore, increasing annoyance among common people is channeled to the far-right or populist parties.”

For instance, certain members who insist on enforcing the European Green Deal in the strictest terms, without caring about its potential economic and social costs for other countries, turn a deaf ear when asked to share the burden of irregular migration, she said.

But is Europe’s right-turn caused only by socio-economic and political factors?

On a closer look, it is evident that the impact of conventional factors like immigration, economic hardship and rising inequality, which used to generally drive voters to the extremes, have noticeably subsided in recent years. According to analyst Federico Fubini, arrivals of asylum seekers are currently well below the last decade’s average even as European societies welcomed millions of Ukrainian refugees without much controversy. Employment today, on the other hand, is at a multi-decade peak in most EU countries, including the founding members, and inequality has also somewhat moderated. In France, the Gini index (which measures income inequality) has been falling since 2010, and similar trends can be found across most other core EU countries.

European political orders have always drawn their legitimacy not just from power or institutions, but also from shared values. The bloc’s overall strategy reflected underlying values that gained traction among the public when it delivered stability and prosperity. Recent geopolitical changes, however, have eroded the system’s perceived legitimacy.

Russia’s assault on Ukraine has made it clear that Europe is only partly sovereign and that the vaunted “Brussels effect” has failed to materialize in the global net-zero transition. Other large countries ignore Europe’s claim to climate leadership, because they know that it lacks the necessary technological prowess. On migration, the EU has consistently failed to find a common approach in addressing the issue vis-à-vis countries of origin.

In short, the much-acclaimed Europe’s stature as a ‘Middle ranking global power,’ based upon moral leadership has taken a severe beating.

Should Indians be concerned?

The EU Parliament elections of 2024 has been reported and discussed widely in the Indian mainstream media indicating concerns about its implications for India’s relationship with the EU as well as its integration with the global order which has a significant European element. Most reports and analyses have flagged the potential of the Rightist surge as affecting India. Such concerns are driven by the fact that EU institutions, along with individual member countries, might adopt more protectionists policies and drive a hard bargain, particularly, in their negotiations with India.

The ease of access of the Indian migrants, on the other hand, has been another major issue of concern.

While these are valid issues which should concern policymakers, there is also a need to identify the opportunities which the EU political shift might result for India. Yashawardhana, for instance, opines that despite challenges, the political realignment in Europe, could, provide India with some new opportunities. One reason behind the rising popularity of right-wing parties has been the disenchantment with economic liberalisation and globalisation measures promoted by the European Union. The alignment of right-leaning economic policies in both regions could, according to Yashawardhana, open new avenues for partnership.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s emphasis on deregulation, ease of doing business, and market access may resonate with the incoming EU Parliament, perhaps reviving long-stalled discussions for an India-EU Free Trade Agreement.

The EU Parliamernt, in recent years, had also been vocal about certain internal developments within India with several members of the European Parliament (MEPs), particularly those belonging to the left or liberal groups being critical of the supposedly majoritarian politics targeting the minorities being practiced by the Narendra Modi regime.

In July 2023, the EU Parliament’s decision to discuss the ongoing internal conflict in Manipur came under heavy criticism from India. India’s foreign secretary had then stated that India has conveyed its objection to the concerned authorities regarding their attempts to discuss matters “wholly and totally internal to India.” According to some reports, India had hired a prominent lobbying firm in Brussels, Alber & Geiger, to help with the outreach to the EU and had reportedly sent a letter on behalf of the Indian government to the MEPs. 

In January 2024, months before India’s general election, the European Parliament had adopted a resolution on EU-India relations which is critical of India’s relations with Russia and “increasing nationalistic rhetoric.” The resolution also criticized India’s policy in Kashmir and domestic legislative changes like the CAA.

Such criticisms are, however, likely to get muted in the near future as the Europe’s right has traditionally been more supportive of India’s attempts to fight Islamist terror threats.

In 2019, for instance, India had organized a visit of an EU Parliamentary delegation to Jammu and Kashmir with most of the nearly 30 MEPs being from far-right, anti-immigration and Eurosceptic parties, including Marine Le Pen’s French National Rally, Alternative for Germany (AfD), the Brexit Party and Poland’s Law and Justice party. Interestingly, this composition of visiting members was also questioned in the EU Parliament.

Strategically, India also may experience growing pressure to strike a balance between its longstanding connections with Russia and the EU’s developing foreign policy. This, however, is likely to be neutralized with Europe’s increasing concerns with China. This trend is consistent with India’s strategic worries about China, creating an opportunity for deeper strategic engagement between India and the EU.

This might have positive impact on the functioning of the Quad and the shaping up of the India-Middle East-European Corridor (IMEC), with the EU and the major European players showing more interest.

The European Green Deal and measures such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), critical components of the EU’s climate strategy, have also become unpopular amongst a sizeable section of the population, reflected in the current patterns of voting. A right-wing Parliament may aim to strike a compromise between environmental goals and economic competitiveness, reflecting India’s approach to sustainable development under Modi.

Lastly, migration, especially illegal migration, continues to be a valid global concern with its steady rise from India. According to Pew Research estimates, for instance, there are currently around 725,000 illegal immigrants in the USA of Indian origin, making it the third largest group of illegal immigrants after Mexico and El Salvador.

In Europe, however, the illegal Indian migrants mostly focus on entering the UK. As per 2023 figures, nearly 1000 Indians tried to illegally enter the UK, mainly taking the perilous English Channel route and over 5000 sought asylums.

Yet, overall, Europe still does not figure as a top destination for Indian migrants. According to another research estimate of the total Indian immigrant stock worldwide, only 8.5% were found in Europe in 2019 with a slight increase between 1990 and 2019. According to Eurostat, at the end of 2021, 618,000 Indian citizens lived legally in the EU, which was the 10th largest group of foreigners out of the 22.3 million people living in the community from outside the EU. According to analyst Patryk Kugiel, senior researcher at the PISM, Warsaw, Indians most often reach Europe legally and are among the nationalities receiving the most visas to the EU.

At the same time, Indians were the 10th largest group in terms of the number of decisions to return from the EU. As India becomes a major source of skilled labour and human resource, it has been making efforts to sign Social Security Agreements for foreign workers (SSA) and on Migration and Mobility Partnerships (MMPA). India has 20 SSAs, including with Germany, France, Hungary and Czechia. MMPA agreements regulate the conditions for legal round-trip mobility, not only of employees but also of students and scientists in exchange for cooperation in combating illegal migration.

The country has also shown its willingness to sign further agreements with likeminded partner countries.  Hence, the issue of migration (illegal) is unlikely to be a major irritant in Indo-European relationship.

Overall, though it is too early to really predict outcomes.

European politics, domestically and within the EU, is likely to remain in a state of flux in the coming years. The return of stability will be contingent on several factors, most of which are beyond the control of the EU institutions.   

India, thus, would have to follow a cautious policy of engagement, negotiating over the irritants and utilizing the opportunities that the new political shifts could offer.