For supporters of the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) in this part of the Hindi heartland, politics, in general, and the ongoing Lok Sabha elections, in particular, is largely about ‘safeguarding’ the Hindu religion. For those in the ranks of the opposition political forces, it is more or less about ‘safeguarding’ democracy and the Constitution that underpins it.

This is the underlying pulse that was resoundingly felt when The Polity team went around Uttarakhand and Western Uttar Pradesh which went to the polls in the first and second phases of the Lok Sabha elections 2024.  

Contentious and polarising issues were much in discussion especially in regions with a sizeable Muslim population. On the ground, however, candidates from both the BJP and the I.N.D.I.A. (Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance) have aggressively reached out to Hindu voters, to a greater intensity than in earlier years.

“There could be an expected consolidation of Hindu votes in favour of the BJP, especially if the divisive rhetoric strikes a chord with the voters in the region,” said a faculty member at the Meerut University who preferred anonymity.

Faith and farmer concerns remain key sentiments in western UP

Eight constituencies – Saharanpur, Kairana, Muzaffarnagar, Bijnor, Nagina (SC), Moradabad, Rampur, and Pilibhit – which went into polls on April 19 have had a significant number of Muslim voters and have been a rough terrain for the BJP in the past which is likely to continue in this election as well. Even more so as the Rajput community has called for a boycott of BJP in Uttar Pradesh.

Of these seats, Muzaffarnagar, Kairana, and Pilibhit were won by BJP in the last general elections in 2019 which they are likely to retain. However, the going might look tough in the other five seats judging by the voter behaviour. BJP could make gains if the Muslim voters abstain from voting, as indicated by the significantly low voter turnout, or if there is some consolidation of Hindu votes.

A section of voters who conversed with The Polity in these constituencies expressed their anger at the arrests of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal and former Chief Minister of Jharkhand Hemant Soren. They felt that the BJP is bullying and seeking to create a kind of autocracy through actions like freezing of the Congress party’s bank accounts, harassing opposition leaders through agencies like the ED and CBI, and so on.

However, a good section of voters, especially women said that those national issues were not influencing them or their voting decision. “We voted based on the local leaders’ influence, how they could help us, and also whether the candidate was from our caste,” said some women in a Muzaffarnagar village who reluctantly spoke to The Polity.

“You are almost tempted to think that village-level issues are taking precedence over national factors in this election and many whom I know say that they have exercised their rights based on those factors,” the witty remark came from a village officer who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Inflation and increasing cost of living has been cited as a major issue in many villages besides the menace of stray cattle damaging the crops. “Issues such as business loss stemming from the demonetization drive and the dearth of jobs have led me to vote for the I.N.D.I.A,” said one voter while coming out of the polling booth in Khatauli.

The constituency where Rashtriya Lok Dal’s Madan Bhaiyya defeated Vikram Singh Saini’s wife in the year 2022 by-poll has a sizeable chunk of voters from other backward classes (OBC), besides Muslims and Dalits. Notably, Rashtriya Lok Dal, which has a good support base in western UP, had recently switched sides by joining the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the BJP. Village elders in the region feel that this could make a significant difference in the outcome.

Muzaffarnagar had been in the news earlier for the Hindu-Muslim riots in 2013 which cast a shadow over the politics and daily lives of the region for several years, particularly during the reign of the Samajwadi Party. Muslims were given a free hand, feel some of the Jat community leaders who spoke to The Polity. However, they now feel incidents of eve-teasing have reduced and law and order have improved under the Yogi Adityanath government. Most of the voters The Polity met in this region were in favour of the ruling BJP.

Nikita, a software engineer in Hyderabad who travelled to Pilibhit, her hometown, told The Polity that she voted for BJP as she was a strong “Modi Bhakt.” “I have many friends in the IT sector who have come back to their hometown to ensure their vote for the BJP,” she added.

When asked about the electoral bonds, many of the voters were either unaware or not very impressed about the matter. According to who shared their piece of mind on the matter to The Polity, such bonds are a means of donations and that every party does that. “We have exercised votes more on issues concerning us, the party matters were not important,” many would nonchalantly say with glees on their faces when the issue of electoral bonds was raised.

However, there were voters who would say that BJP’s highhandedness was glaring which made them exercise votes in favour of the Samajwadi Party. Several of them were perturbed by the arrest of leaders like Arvind Kejriwal as well.

Jyoti, working in a private school in western UP, affirmed that she voted for her religion. Likewise, Ayesha, another teacher from a different school, also stated that she too voted for her religion as “Muslims were feeling threatened and a change was needed.”

Aslam Baig, an IAS aspirant, however, said that he voted based on what the government had promised and what would benefit the common man. “Many would vote on religion, caste, etc. but then again politicians cannot take the Muslim votes as something guaranteed,” Baig exclaimed.

“We have been treated as only a vote bank by these politicians, all of them make hollow promises but nothing transpires on the ground. In the past I voted for the Congress, then I voted for the Samajwadi Party, for Bahujan Samaj Party, and also the BJP but all in vain. Everyone is the same. So, this time I exercised my mandate with caution,” said Mohammed Riaz, a school teacher with sufficient influence in the local Muslim community of his region, without delving much on to what he exactly meant by using the word ‘caution.’

In the agricultural heartlands, the Congress’ promise for farmers in its Nyay Patra regarding MSP (minimum support price), a concern for many, seemed alluring for some sections. “This will guarantee some sort of income for farmers,” said Govind Tyagi, a sugarcane farmer in Purquazi in western UP.

At the same time, other sugarcane farmers who spoke to The Polity stated that they were getting the price of the crop on time and many were happy with the PM Kisan Samman Nidhi benefits as well as the old-age pension benefits. They, hence, voted for the continuity of the current regime. Free ration for the poor was another reason for even some Muslims to vote for the BJP as many of them felt that if this is taken away then they would die of hunger.

Uttarakhand may surprise with its verdict

As the first state in India to implement a Uniform Civil Code (UCC) of its own, Uttarakhand, which voted on April 19th, has been witnessing some disenchantment as evident from the voter sentiments. For instance, delayed payments to sugarcane farmers in Haridwar have been a major factor among voters in the region.

That no subsidized electricity has been provided for irrigation in the state has caused some distress to framers. Floods and landslides, on the other hand, have been plaguing Uttarakhand None of the parties are serious about the climate change impact, points out Ramcharan, a school teacher in Tehri. “Many people in remote areas are migrating to other places searching for better opportunities. The administration needs to do something about this,” he remarked to The Polity.

“I have voted for the Congress.” said Sheila, a resident of Roorkee. Hailing originally from Tamil Nadu, she has been staying here for the past 40 years. Speaking like a local, she said that in a democracy there should be strong opposition as well as checks and balances. BJP is trying to dismantle the opposition and make India mukt of everything, and that is wrong.

“Places like UP, Uttarakhand, etc., are all about caste, religion, and perhaps some local issues. What happens in Delhi, of course, will influence UP as it is proximate to Delhi,” said Dr Vidya Rawat, a college lecturer in Uttarakhand. She said that voters like her would now rather abstain from voting as “none of the political parties are good at anything.”

“Corruption is an issue,” said Saurabh Balyan, one of the youngsters who exercised his vote. “But then every party is corrupt. There is a saying until you do not get an opportunity to steal, you keep saying others are thieves and when you get the opportunity you do the same as others were doing. No one is a saint, all have their axes to grind, I keep switching between parties and hope others have done so too as giving one always makes them arrogant,” he added.

Political analysts attribute the uncertainty in outcome to the Congress as the grand old party has been unable to successfully rake up issues that concern the public with full zest in a timely manner. Locals at a Dhabha on the Roorkee-Dehra Dun Road who spoke to The Polity think that the Prime Minister Narendra Modi continued to maintain relationship with the state whether anything good or not so good happened. According to them, however, the Congress leaders were always missing.

Despite such comments, an academic in a private university in Dehra Dun who did not wish to be named, told The Polity that though BJP has the power and resources, it may be in for a surprise as far as the five seats in Uttarakhand are concerned. Some Dalit voters who interacted with The Polity outside a polling booth expressed dismay at the system – they felt that budget earmarked for them is never spent and eaten up by middlemen. No land reforms and no special concessions have been implemented for them, a reason why they voted against BJP.

“Our water, forests and land are being taken away in the name of developing road and railway network and they forcefully brought the Uniform Civil Code to divert attention,” said a state government employee in Dehra Dun on strict condition of anonymity. “I am from the government and know the facts, see what the people of Raini village are suffering from, the crisis of Joshimath and the political leaders blame everything on Muslims which is easy to do,” he added.

“The youth have been betrayed by schemes like Agnipath that has put a full stop to their aspirations to serve in the defence forces. Now when you join as a soldier under this scheme there is no permanent job, less salary, no benefits like PF, Gratuity, insurance, or other benefits that a regular defence personnel would get. This scheme will create mercenaries who after five years will roam around jobless, so I voted for Congress,” says Rajesh Nautiyal, a villager from Pauri in Uttarakhand.

Surprisingly, the BJP’s Ram Mandir plank has not seen to have worked wonders for the party in the Devbhoomi where a larger section of the population worships Shiva and Shakti and is home to the Char Dhams.

“We do not want the BJP to teach us our religion, we know better than what the BJP leaders speak,” said a shopkeeper whom The Polity met on the way to Nainital, a sentiment that echoed in other parts of the state as well, especially in the upper Himalayan areas.

The issue of the rape and murder of Ankita Bhandari which had the alleged involvement of Pulkit Arya, the son of an influential BJP leader, was an issue that was mentioned in various road-side conversations The Polity had. 

On the other hand, while the genesis of Uttarakhand state stemmed from the Himalayan identity quandary, it is seen to be steadily fading. The resort culture in the mountain area, many felt, caters to affluent individuals from the plains, overseeing the construction of grand hotels and resorts at the expense of rivers and hillsides.

Despite the establishment of a migration commission aimed at retaining youth in the hills, little progress has materialized, points out the official mentioned earlier. Presently, over 2,000 villages in the mountains lie abandoned, earning the moniker ‘ghost villages.’

Demographically, Uttarakhand's hill population is dwindling while the plains witness rapid growth annually. This demographic shift foreshadows potential disparity in legislative representation during future delimitation, favouring plains over hills.

The Tehri Garhwal seat in Uttarakhand has been in the spotlight, with the BJP candidate Mala Raj Lakshmi Shah, a member of the royal family of Tehri, having won the seat last time. Thus, the main fight in 2024 was supposed to be between the BJP and the Congress, which was the runner-up in the constituency in the 2019 elections. This time, the Congress party is represented by Jot Singh Gunsola.

The seat has been a stronghold for significant political figures and parties, making it a critical constituency in both state and national politics. The constituency encompasses a diverse and challenging geographical area, including parts of the Himalayas. Issues such as infrastructure development, environmental concerns, and the impact of projects like the Tehri Dam often bring the seat into the national discourse.

However, Bobby Panwar, an independent candidate, has emerged as an icon of youth in the state, giving the BJP nightmares. He was the whistleblower in the Uttarakhand exam paper leak case in 2023, and people see him as a symbol of youth issues such as unemployment. His campaigns have witnessed huge gatherings and significant public support. There is talk that it is not going to be a cakewalk for the monarch this time around.

Thus, while the headwinds seem to be shifting in the hill state, the sugarcane belt seems to be caught between faith and farmers causes and a perplexed electorate largely likely to stick to the status quo than attempt any major revisionist experiments on the ballot.