When asked about the election situation in Thiruvananthapuram, where a high-intensity, three-cornered race is unveiling, Prabhat, a journalist with the vernacular media, had this to say: “It is Rajeev Chandrasekhar all over the place. If there are 10 posters and banners in an area, 6-7 of those will be of Rajeev Chandrasekhar, 2-3 of Shashi Tharoor and one of Panniyan Raveendran.” 

The implication from this situation is not an anticipated victory for Rajeev Chandrasekhar, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate in Thiruvananthapuram or the ruling party at the centre poised to make a grand debut in Kerala’s parliamentary poll space. Rather, the comment is about the spending power of some candidates or their parties and the inability of others to match up with their cash-rich counterparts. 

Desperate to break the jink of “BJP-Mukt South India,” the ruling party at the centre has extensively invested in the elections since 2019, in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, including in the 2021 state assembly elections and the ongoing campaign. The question, however, is moot whether the rich funding and well-oiled campaign machinery, thanks to the RSS organizational heft in the state, will help the BJP finally cross the barrier the state has been when it comes to the Lok Sabha representation. 

On the contrary, will the Indian National Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) repeat its spectacular 19/20 show of 2019 or will the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) make a major comeback in a state known to be its sole fortification? 

A socio-political engineering in the works?

Kerala has been in the news for being one of those few states where key I.N.D.I.Alliance partners will be in direct face-offs and indulging in acerbic political contests that match the BJP v. rest equations in most other parts of the country. 

Accordingly, The Polity team traversing across the state witnessed a uniquely evolving political environment: the ruling party at the centre going the full hog to breach a citadel which has so far remained impenetrable; the ruling party in the state for two continuous terms seeking an end to its dry patch in the Parliament, yet significantly confronted by anti-incumbency; and the grand old party, which has been in the opposition both at the centre and state for two consecutive terms, seeking to do a repeat of its 2019 sweep of the Lok Sabha seats in order to bolster its grand comeback plans at the centre.   

Two factors that substantially shaped the poll outcome for Kerala in 2019 – the Sabarimala women's entry issue and Rahul Gandhi’s candidature from Wayanad – seem to be of very little or no significance to the 2024 electoral scene in the state. 

Instead, what was more palpable on the ground was a series of new socio-political trends and conditioning that had the potential to transform the political picture of the state in the years to come. These include:

-        The intense anti-incumbency sentiment against the ruling CPM and LDF just three years after being voted back to power in what was a historic reversal of the predictable behaviour of the state’s electorate;

-        An increasing acceptability for the BJP among some Christian denominations owing to purported concerns over ‘Love Jihad,’ even as some sections maintain their aversion to the Hindutva party; 

-        A resultant splinter in minority votes that traditionally favoured the Congress and now causing unpredictability even about the captive Muslim votes; 

-        A notable shift of upper-caste political preference in favour of BJP in Travancore and Kochi regions, though a consolidation of Hindu upper-caste/OBC is yet to happen. 

Owing to the primacy of the Left-Congress contest, the election debates in Kerala have largely avoided the national issues – be it the electoral bonds, unemployment, Pulwama, Agnipath or even the ‘crony capitalism’ allegations, and so on, despite even Rahul Gandhi’s electoral presence in the state. “Raising national-level issues will divert attention from the state’s core politics as well as the contest between UDF and LDF, and instead give more importance to BJP and PM Modi in the electoral debates,” remarked a District Congress Committee (DCC) member in Thiruvananthapuram to The Polity, insisting on not to be named.    

On the other hand, like in all elections, both the UDF and LDF have traded charges against each other of having a secret pacts with the BJP to facilitate vote transfers and cross-voting. However, this time over, there is the more tangible concept of andhar dhara (meaning ‘undercurrent’), and in this context, a secret channel of cooperation, being alleged between the BJP and CPM, or more directly, between PM Modi and Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. 

The common interest of BJP and CPM in seeing Rahul Gandhi as a “political threat” and CM Vijayan’s disinclination to directly target the Prime Minister in his political pronouncements are pointed out as indications of such an arrangement. The allegedly coordinated effort that led to the SNC Lavalin corruption case hearings, involving CM Vijayan, being postponed over 36 times in the Supreme Court and the insulation Vijayan seems to have received from potential Enforcement Directorate (ED) and CBI action on many corruption allegations are also cited as proof of this latent channel of cooperation. 

Nonetheless, it is also a fact that the Modi government has kept the CPM and Vijayan’s associates on tenterhooks on numerous occasions including the gold smuggling case and alleged scams in various cooperative societies controlled by the CPM. Lately, the ED has also filed cases against CM Vijayan’s daughter on an alleged bribery case involving a corporate group. CPM and LDF sources who spoke to The Polity pointed to these actions to rubbish the claims of any illicit bonding. “If there was an iota of credible evidence against Pinarayi Vijayan or his associates, the Modi government could have lost no opportunity to ensure his incarceration as done to Arvind Kejriwal and Soren,” political observer and a Left sympathizer, Lakshmanan Nittoor, remarked to The Polity. No such under-hand dealings are possible between two hardcore ideological rivals, he adds. 

Irrespective of such claims, local leaders in many of the constituencies and districts, who spoke to The Polity, are convinced of the possibility of major vote transfers or cross-voting, particularly in those constituencies where three-cornered races involving UDF-LDF-NDA are in play, as well as in some seats where alliance parties could be sacrificed in “the pursuit of political objectives for the national level.”    

Owing to these peculiar trends, the nature of electoral outcomes in the state has become more and more unpredictable with not just many close contests but also new swing factors that could shape many of these battles.  

A 2019 encore or a Left revival?

In the 20-odd constituencies, the UDF is in direct contest with the LDF in most while at least 4-5 constituencies will have intense three-cornered contests. The latter include Thiruvananthapuram, Trichur, Attingal, Pathanamthitta and Alappuzha where the BJP candidates are believed to be in strong races for either the winner or the runner-up positions. Of these, the BJP is assumed to be at striking distance of victory in Thiruvananthapuram, where the party was already in the second position since the 2014 election, and in Thrissur, where it was a close third with just one per cent vote share difference with the runner-up (LDF/CPI candidate) in 2019. 

In the remaining seats, including the ones where BJP has strong candidates, the race is essentially between the UDF and LDF with the UDF project to be on a strong footing in at least 15 seats. Despite LDF circles oozing confidence and anticipating a grand return to the Parliament, the mood from the ground indicate an LDF strong show in only around 8-9 seats where it has put up candidates with considerable clout or the ability to give tough fights. These include Attingal (V. Joy), Pathanamthitta (Thomas Issac), Mavelikara (Arun Kumar), Kottayam (Thomas Chazikadan), Alathur (K Radhakrishnan), Kozhikode (Elamaram Karim), Kannur (M.V. Jayarajan), Vadakara (K.K. Shailaja), Kasargod (M.V. Balakrishnan), etc. 

LDF sources who spoke to The Polity, and did not wish to be named, added a few more seats, including Palakkad, Chalakudy, Trichur and Thiruvananthapuram to this list though the reports indicate a not-so-favourable situation for the LDF in most of these seats. While UDF leaders, for their part, were confident about not just repeating the 19:1 performance as in 2019 and some even predicting a complete sweep of all 20 seats, district-level leaders were confident of assured victory in 15-17 seats with close races in the rest. 

The Polity team tried to grasp the mood on the ground in a state with a rich political tapestry and where ideological distinctions are sharp and deeply entrenched. As a result, conversations with any party cadre or workers usually only result in a response favouring their respective party candidates. 

For instance, in Venjaramoodu, an area under the Attingal Lok Sabha constituency where the district CPM Secretary, V. Joy is taking on sitting Congress MP, Adoor Prakash and Union Minister of State, V. Muraleedharan of BJP, The Polity came across a UDF booth level team on 23rd April (a day before campaigning was coming to an end) and asked about the ground situation. Krishna Pillai, the team leader, remarked thus: “Joy might be influential in his area (Chirayankeezhu assembly constituency which he represents as MLA, and is part of the Attingal Lok Sabha constituency), but in our area, it will be Adoor Prakash.”   

Ironically, while the BJP considers Attingal as an ‘A’ category and places high chances for its Union Minister, V. Muraleedharan, the local mood indicates a close race between Adoor Prakash and V Joy, who has much ground-support at least in some parts of this constituency. After the initial momentum gained by the CPM district secretary, the sitting MP is seen to have consolidated gains through his community connections despite being tagged an ‘outsider’ since the outset. If the race narrows down to the Congress and CPM candidates here, what could have happened in this so-called ‘A’ category seat of the BJP if a union minister is relegated to the third position?

A cursory look at most of the 20 constituencies will illustrate many such localized socio-political elements which, however, may not necessarily provide an understanding of how the Kerala electorate collectively thinks or what drove candidate choices of various parties. The latter aspect could be specifically relevant about the BJP which seems to have hit its own chances through erroneous candidate choices at least for some ‘promising’ constituencies. 

Did BJP err in its choices? 

While prominent candidates like Rajeev Chandrasekhar were “out of reach” when we tried to contact, local leaders and BJP karyakarthas who interacted with The Polity were of the dominant view that the central leadership seemed more interested in increasing the vote share and making inroads into various social and community set ups in order to make gains in the upcoming elections, starting with the 2026 assembly polls. 

A formidable socio-political coalition is still evading the BJP in Kerala where the party continues to be seen as a Hindu upper-caste grouping with a Hindi heartland bias. “Nairs are significantly moving towards the BJP across the state, and particularly in the Travancore area,” says Sanal Padmanabhan, a Congressman in Alappuzha who used to be an office-bearer for the party in the district earlier. 

While upper-caste moblisation was a given for quite some time, the BJP attempted a Hindu consolidation of sorts by getting the leadership of the Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam (SNDP), representing the Ezhava community, to form the Bharat Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS) a few elections ago. However, this move did not make any notable impact on this OBC community, which is also the largest Hindu sub-community in Kerala, and largely remains loyal to the CPM and LDF. 

On the other hand, despite the increasing acceptability among Nairs, the decision of the Nair Service Society (NSS), the umbrella organization of the community, to maintain equidistance from all parties, ensured that no consolidation of the community happens in favour of any particular front. It is against this backdrop that the BJP central leadership is now moving mountains to woo the Christian community. The party leadership has been going the extra mile to build goodwill with a community, which once was at the receiving end of Hindutva politics in the country and continues to largely view the party with suspicion. 

The 2024 election, many BJP leaders feel, will be a test of this outreach and its impact, which, if found effective, could form the pivot for BJP’s electoral strategy in 2026. As a result, very few local-level leaders see major electoral gains other than potential increase in vote share and victory in one or two seats. 

Thiruvananthapuram: On a closer look, the only place where the BJP seem to have made an accurate choice seems to be in Thiruvananthapuram where Rajeev Chandrasekhar, the Union Minister of State for IT and Skill Development, has given a strong contest for Shashi Tharoor, the three-time MP, who, before the elections had expressed immense confidence of another term. While Chandrasekhar was initially seen to be as elitist as Tharoor and only likely to impress the urban voters, his candidature was not known to be enthusiastically received by BJP workers in the constituency, who were reportedly anticipating veteran leader Kummanam Rajasekharan or V. Muraleedharan as the party nominee. 

However, Chandrasekhar has had an impactful campaign in the constituency, particularly in the urban areas where Tharoor had considerable support, but seemed to be eroding in the inroads made by the former. “Rajeev Chandrasekhar is a perfect match for the elitist, urbane and sophisticated persona that Tharoor was identified with, and being a union minister who could be in Modi cabinet if voted to power has considerably boosted his chances,” opines Sinu Paul, an IT executive in Technopark who has shifted allegiance to Chandrasekhar after years of support to Tharoor. 

That Tharoor faces considerable opposition in the coastal belt, which gave him a breather in 2014 when he narrowly scrapped past BJP’s O. Rajagopal who was leading even when 85 per cent of the votes were counted, is giving hopes to Chandrasekhar though the BJP is also yet to make any notable impact in this belt where the opposition to the Gautam Adani-owned Vizhinjam port has caused considerable resentment. 

However, Chandrasekhar’s fate, much like Tharoor's, may not depend only on the urban votes but also on the significant rural segment in the constituency, where CPI and LDF veteran, Panniyan Raveendran had focused much of his campaign as opposed to the urban focus of his richer and more sophisticated rival candidates. 

Thrissur: In 2019, BJP fielded movie star Suresh Gopi as its candidate in this constituency. Following an intense campaign, the actor-turned-politician garnered 28.19 per cent votes and came third, but with only a per cent of vote share difference with his CPI/LDF rival, Mathew Thomas, who managed just 30.85 per cent. While Gopi’s chances continue to look promising, his victory is largely dependent on whether his two rivals – K Muraleedharan of UDF and Sunil Kumar of LDF will vertically split the secular votes among themselves or instead, the segment will consolidate in favour of either one of them. 

A UDF district leader in Thrissur, who preferred anonymity, expressed his fear to The Polity that a segment of Congress votes might go to Suresh Gopi even as some CPI leaders also fear a similar erosion of CPM votes to K. Muraleedharan. 

The decisive factor, in fact, could be the Christian votes in the constituency, which are in significant numbers and have a history of alternating between UDF and LDF depending on candidates and political situation. It is in this matrix that the BJP hopes Suresh Gopi will ensure a major Hindu consolidation and also make gains in the Christian community. 

Pathanamthitta is a constituency where the BJP seeks to experiment with its Christian outreach. However, like in the case of Alphons K.J., who was fielded from Ernakulam in 2019, the BJP seems to have made a significant error of judgement in its choice of Anil Antony, son of veteran Congressman A.K. Antony, who joined the party in 2023. Seasoned Kerala Congress leader, P.C. George, who recently joined the BJP, was an aspirant for this seat and had considerable clout in the constituency, having represented the Poonjar assembly seat for many terms. Local BJP leaders wonder why the party leadership did not consider Anil Antony for Ernakulam, as his family originally hailed from Cherthala, a nearby suburb, and instead not given an opportunity to George to make an impact in Pathanamthitta. The party also confronts the question from its burgeoning section of Christian supporters on why the party had confined to only one candidate from the community when it could have tried out more Christian candidates in seats like Kottayam, Ernakulam, Idukki and Chalakudy.  

Alappuzha and Attingal are two other constituencies where two formidable BJP state leaders, Shobha Surendran and Union Minister V Muraleedharan, are in three-cornered races but may still be competing only for the runner-up position as the LDF and UDF has fielded strong leaders including the LDF’s only sitting MP in Alappuzha. Both the BJP leaders, originally hailing from Malabar, have been fielded with an eye on the consolidation of Ezhava votes and hoping for greater support of Nairs in these constituencies. Both leaders are known for increasing vote shares but quite always falling short of the victory mark. 

Beyond these four constituencies where a three-cornered race is assured, most other prominent BJP candidates, be it M.T. Ramesh in Kozhikode, C Krishnakumar in Palakkad or M.L. Ashwini in Kasargod could merely aspire an increase in vote share. 

Edge for Congress/UDF, sans 2019 sweep

The amusing aspect of the Kerala reporting experience was the similarity in numbers that the UDF and LDF sources predicted for their fronts. While 15-17 seats has been pronounced as a target by both sides, the defining part was about how leaders from both fronts look at the potentially difficult seats. 

For example, the UDF leaders listed only a handful of seats like Alathur, Kasargod and Kottayam as difficult ones for the front whereas LDF sources expect losses only in 3-4 seats including Ernakulam, Wayanad and Malappuram, owing to factors like Rahul Gandhi and Indian Union Muslim League’s strong grip over the Malabar seats. 

The fact that Alathur and Kasargod seats remain in the doubtful category for the UDF validate the reports in various quarters of the sitting MPs not finding sufficient support from local Congress units. While UDF leaders in Malabar who spoke to The Polity were firm in their belief that both Remya Haridas (Alathur) and Rajmohan Unnithan (Kasargod) will romp home comfortably, thanks to rousing public support they have, most of these sources were not inclined to deny the organizational problems and working styles of these sitting MPs causing consternation in some circles. 

The stakes are evenly poised in Kottayam where UDF leaders are concerned about the effect when CPM’s organizational strength blends with the clout of Kerala Congress (M) in the district. However, a Congress district leader in Alappuzha told The Polity that UDF may still win Kottayam as “the most literate constituency in the country has a mind of its own and could consider the national situation when exercising the mandate.” He felt this might have a domino effect in adjoining constituencies including Mavelikara where Kodikunnil Suresh is fighting a battle of survival with young CPI leader, Arun Kumar.  

Notwithstanding these sentiments and confidence expressed on both sides, many of the analyses shared with The Polity gave some useful insights. For instance, UDF sources in Malabar predict a complete sweep in the region even though the front was routed there just three years earlier in the 2021 assembly elections. Even as LDF leaders were confident that Elamaram Karim would wrest back Kozhikode from UDF, Congress leaders in the district feels M.K. Raghavan is now an “emotion” in the constituency and has such extensive bonds and community connections that can ensure his win even as an independent. 

A closely-watched fight in Malabar is in Kannur where sitting MP and Congress Kerala unit president K. Sudhakaran is taking on M.V. Jayarajan, the district secretary of CPM and one of the powerful ‘Jayarajan’ troika in the district. CPM leaders have always treated Kannur as their fort which, though, Sudhakaran has breached on more than one occasion. 

Manoj Parakkadi, who has served in the political staff of K Sudhakaran and worked closely with senior Congress leaders in Malabar told to The Polity that Sudhakaran will have a decisive win in Kannur thanks to the substantial support he has in assembly constituencies like Kannur, Azhikode, Irrikur and Peravoor which could counter the expected support to Jayarajan from CPM strongholds like Dharmadom, Mattannur and Thaliparambu. Parakkadi also reminds Sudhakaran’s garnering of more than 50 per cent votes in 2019 which included majorities in many areas which were traditional strongholds of the CPM. 

On the other hand, LDF leaders in Malabar predict a impactful win for Jayarajan with more than 30,000 margins in their traditional strongholds and notable margins in other areas which stood with Sudhakaran in 2019. CPM leaders who spoke to The Polity pointed out Sudhakaran’s poor performance as a parliamentarian in the constituency and a section of Congressmen leaving the party to join the BJP with the latter’s candidate in Kannur, C. Raghunathan, as factors favouring Jayarajan. 

Vadagara is another seat witnessing a prestigious and acerbic contest between the LDF and UDF thanks to the impact of Kannur’s vitriolic political climate. Long held as a Communist bastion, Vadagara has seen some legendary contests with both Left and Congress candidates attaining decisive wins. For long represented by Congress and socialist veteran K.P. Unnikrishnan, Left candidates won from the constituency for many terms until 2009 when UDF it wrested back and has held on to it since. 

The presence of Revolutionary Marxist Party (RMP), the party formed by slain Communist leader T.P. Chandrasekharan, and its support to the UDF has enabled its dominance in the seat notwithstanding the CPM-dominated assembly constituencies like Thalassery, Koothuparamba, Kuttiyadi and Perambra. The 2019 contest saw Congress heavyweight K. Muraleedharan defeating firebrand CPM leader, P. Jayarajan, with an 80,000 margin. The current race between K.K. Shailaja, who was LDF health minister during the Covid period and young Congress leader Shafi Parambil, is seen as one of the most aggressively fought contests in Kerala. The UDF camp is also upbeat about the prospects of the younger generation of large Muslim families, who traditionally stood with the LDF, shifting loyalties to Congress on the back of national issues like CAA and onslaught of Hindutva. 

While UDF leaders expect to romp home easily in other Malabar seats including those held by IUML and seats like Palakkad and Chalakudy, the other key race, and a three-cornered one at that, is Thrissur. Anticipating Suresh Gopi’s surge and a BJP debut in Malabar, thanks to Padmaja Venugopal, K. Karunakaran’s daughter deserting the Congress to join the BJP, the UDF leadership moved the veteran’s son, K. Muraleedharan, himself a party heavy-weight, from his sitting seat in Vadagara to Thrissur in order to take on Gopi and the LDF local favourite, Sunil Kumar. 

Owing to the intense three-cornered race, even UDF leaders expect a win for Muraleedharan, though with a reduced margin, but fear some transfer for votes to Suresh Gopi in Hindu-dominated areas as much as CPI leaders, who spoke to The Polity on condition of anonymity, fearing a mass transfer for CPM votes to Muraleedharan to ensure Suresh Gopi’s defeat. As mentioned earlier, the sizable Christian votes in this constituency, which is home to not just mainstream Christian denominations but even Chaldean churches, will be the decisive factor in Thrissur as much as adjoining constituencies including Chalakudy, Alathur and Ernakulam. 

Interestingly, if Rahul Gandhi was the pivotal factor in 2019, along with Sabarimala, in 2024, there is very little discussion about the Gandhi family scion, more so because his victory in Wayanad is again a foregone conclusion. However, the constituency has again caught national attention owing to the CPI’s national leader, Annie Raja, throwing down the gauntlet and Left leaders questioning Rahul Gandhi’s commitment to opposition unity for taking on the LDF despite the fact that it is Gandhi’s sitting seat.  

Coming to the central and south zones, the UDF expects its sitting MPs to easily romp home in party strongholds like Ernakulam (Hibi Eden), Idukki (Dean Kuriakose), Kollam (N.K. Premachandran), and even Thiruvananthapuram (Shashi Tharoor) – a proposition that LDF leaders dismiss as “over-confidence.” Besides the fact that three-cornered races are happening in many of the southern seats including Thiruvananthapuram, Attingal and Pathanamthitta, the LDF leaders The Polity spoke to were immensely confident of stunning victories in Attingal, Pathanamthitta, Idukki and Mavelikara.  

However, the interesting story about the contest in Travancore-Kochi is about Alappuzha, which is the sole sitting seat of the LDF and CPM, and where the scenario has drastically changed with the arrival of Congress national organization secretary, K.C. Venugopal, who had represented the constituency twice. The return of Venugopal, according to Congress leaders in Alappuzha, is driven by the belief that had Venugopal contested it could have been 20 out of 20 in 2019. For, as the saying goes in Alappuzha, “If there is K.C., it will be easy.”

While LDF leaders in the district whom The Polity contacted were mum about the sitting MP’s prospects, the mood gauged from the ground shows despondency among LDF workers with the arrival of Venugopal. According to a block panchayat member of UDF hailing from the Ambalapuzha region, LDF workers were seen to be reluctant to even do booth-level work in communist strongholds like Mararikulam owing to the Venugopal factor. 

At the same time, Mararikulam’s export to the adjoining Pathanamthitta constituency is reason for hope for the LDF as former Finance Minister and CPM heavyweight, Dr Thomas Issac, has been fielded from the constituency represented by the sitting MP, Anto Antony, since its creation in the 2008 delimitation exercise. While the constituency is witnessing a contest between three candidates with Christian names, including one a non-believer (Issac) and another representing the Hindutva ideology (Anil Antony), the UDF camp is confident of Anto Antony creating history for a fourth time. LDF circles, however, feel that Issac’s contribution as Finance Minister and intellect will be recognized by the voters of this constituency besides the possibility of Anil Antony cutting into the other Antony's traditional community vote bases. 

If the LDF’s Joyce Joseph’s win of 2014 was attributed to the protests over the Kasturirangan Report and the Church groups openly supporting the Left-backed independent candidate, his return to the fray this time will be to compete with sitting MP, Dean Kuriakose, whose young, dynamic and yet calm image is said to have found a dedicated fan following in the hill constituency. Similarly, while LDF leaders still hope that V. Joy will do a coup in Attingal, Congress leaders are weighing on the political acumen of Adoor Prakash and the support he receives from community leaders to do a 2019 repeat. 

In Thiruvananthapuram, the LDF seems to have lost the winning instinct ever since losing the seat to Tharoor in 2009 and being relegated to third position in 2014. The CPI, with its historic claim to the seat in spite of not having even a single MLA in the Lok Sabha constituency, has largely been dependent on the CPM, which represents 6 of the 7 assembly seats. Despite such dominance, the BJP led in most of these seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, a part of which Tharoor redeemed in 2019. It is assumed that CPM votes were substantially transferred to Tharoor in 2019 in order to avoid a BJP victory. The CPI’s decision to field veteran leader, Panniyan Raveendran, who returned back from electoral retirement, is seen as an attempt to consolidate the Left votes, which, if materializing, could divide the ‘secular’ votes and help the BJP candidate. 

This predicament has been visible in the LDF campaign in Thiruvananthapuram which lacked lustre and was largely restricted to rural areas of the constituency even as the focus shifted to the Tharoor-Chandrasekhar contest and Panniyan Raveendran hardly having any visibility in the urban pockets. In conversations with The Polity, local CPM workers were lamenting about the need for the party to take the seat from CPI and field strong candidates which the party boasts of a handful in the constituency. 

The Christian factor

While Catholic Christians and Muslim votes were supposed to be the captive vote base for UDF along with Nairs, the non-Catholic denominations including the Orthodox and protestant churches along with splinter groups from the dominant Sunni sects were supposed to have often joined hands with Ezhavas to enable the Left’s return to power on many occasions. 

Notwithstanding the declarations of equidistance and staying from politics by clergy groups like the Kerala Catholic Bishops Council (KSCBC), the declaration of support by some Bishops for the BJP and the screening of the controversial movie “The Kerala Story” by some dioceses have raised alarms in sections of the clergy and the laity which has traditionally seen the BJP’s rise as an existential threat to the community’s interests.  

On the other hand, the Malankara Syrian church, which has seen a conflict between the Jacobite and Orthodox sects, has constantly changed its preferences as per political circumstances. The Jacobite church, in fact, is assumed to have declared its support for the LDF in return for the Left government's support of the group’s stand on the asset dispute with the other faction. While this proclamation could push the Orthodox faction to back the UDF, the significant question for the Christian community will be whether a section of the Catholics will shift their political allegiance to the BJP. 

Such a move will be decisive in a handful of constituencies like Thrissur, Pathanamthitta, Idukki, Ernakulam, Chalakudy and Alappuzha, and will also have a significant impact on the 2026 assembly elections wherein BJP expects to do a Goa-type assumption to power, riding on the support of Christian votes.  

It is this social engineering at work that scares the UDF camp as two of its captive vote bases – Nairs and Catholics – are believed to be increasingly slipping out of its grip. Despite the UDF leaders expounding confidence of a 2019 repeat, the significant social realignment happening among these communities, even if not manifesting fully currently, could have a certain impact in upcoming elections – a goal that BJP seems to have set for itself. 

What verdict awaits the Kerala ballot...

Other than in the 2004 Lok Sabha polls when the CPM-led LDF crossed the halfway mark, in most other general elections, the Congress-led UDF has had the upper hand, irrespective of who was ruling the state. The possibility of this trend continuing in 2024, even if with lesser win margins, seems now a foregone conclusion.

If Sabarimala and Rahul Gandhi together felled Pinarayi Vijayan in 2019, it will be anti-incumbency and corruption allegations that will be grounding his front this time. For, the LDF relies on Vijayan as its mascot with few national leaders showing the ability to lead the charge, be it in Kerala or on the national scene. As a result, the anti-incumbency against his government and the aversion seen to his personality among many sections is likely to be the main drawback for the LDF in this election.

This being the popular sentiment, an LDF surge in 6-8 seats can only be a saving grace for the lead party, which is struggling to sustain its foothold in a state where it was re-elected to power with a record margin.